With the exception of Mediterranean areas, the first two-thirds of summer 2021 in France have been a something of a damp squib – July has so far seen 60 percent more rainfall than normal for the time of year, and skies covered by more cloud than usual.

And forecasters predict that the first two weeks of August will see little change in weather patterns. Temperatures this weekend are not expected to rise above 27C anywhere in France, low for the time of year. The last summer of this cooler, wetter kind was in 2014.

“It seems fairly certain that the first two weeks of the month [of August] will be… frequently rainy, relatively cool for the season, the Mediterranean rim being more favoured,” forecaster Météo Consult said.

Usually, at this time of year, a high pressure system over the Azores extends towards the Bay of Biscay and France, guaranteeing warm and sunny weather.

This year, that regular summer high pressure system is too far away to prevent low-pressure systems circulating over western Europe – bringing rain and storms, and lower-than-normal temperatures to the northern half of the country.

On top of this, the latest models predict active storms moving from the Pyrénées towards the Alps from Tuesday. Forecasters say it could even feel quite autumnal in northern areas from Thursday, August 5th, through to Sunday, August 8th, as low pressure over Britain brings its share of clouds, wind and rain.

It is still unclear how far south the effects of this low-pressure system will be felt – so far, forecasters are only confident about saying the south-east and Mediterranean regions should escape the worst of the bad weather, and enjoy dry, sunny and warm conditions.

And it had all seemed so promising. Mid-June saw a brief early summer hot spell, with temperatures reaching 37C in Perpignan and 35C in Paris. But it didn’t last. The storms that followed preceded an extended period of rain and thunderstorms across much of the country, with temperatures well down on seasonal norms.

The good news is that the second half of August looks better than the first through the meteorologists’ long lens. Models suggest that anticyclonic conditions will return, bringing sun and rising temperatures at the back end of the summer holidays. We may even get to bask in a heatwave just before the schools reopen…