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Germany economy to return to pre-pandemic levels ‘by 2022 at the latest’

The German government is set to upgrade its growth forecast for this year as industry holds up well to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Saturday.

Published: 24 April 2021 08:19 CEST

Germany economy to return to pre-pandemic levels 'by 2022 at the latest'

Testing staff of non-profit organisation Albatros receive people for a coronavirus (Covid-19) test before Friday prayer at the 'Haus der Weisheit' (House of Wisdom) Mosque in Berlin's Moabit district on April 23, 2021. (Photo by Tobias Schwarz / AFP)

“In January, we forecast growth of 3.0 percent. Current data show that it will even be slightly higher,” Altmaier said in an interview with the Funkemedia group, speaking ahead of the ministry’s gross domestic product forecasts scheduled for Tuesday.

Europe’s biggest economy shrank by 4.9 percent in 2020 as restrictions to curb the pandemic hit many sectors.

“There are reasons to be optimistic,” Altmaier said, pointing to better-than-expected data as industry benefits from the global recovery.

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the anti-Covid restrictions – which are being tightened in Germany from this weekend in an attempt to rein in a ferocious third wave of infections – have hit sectors such as retail, gastronomy and hotels particularly hard.

READ ALSO: Germany makes new prediction for jobs and economy in 2021

The German economy will return to pre-pandemic levels “by 2022 at the latest,” Altmaier said.

Last week, Germany’s leading think-tanks similarly warned that the current wave of the pandemic would put the brakes on economic recovery, but they were pencilling in growth of as much as 3.7 percent this year.

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Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

More people donning face masks in supermarkets, friends cancelling plans last minute due to getting sick with Covid-19. We might have seen some of those familiar reminders recently that the coronavirus is still around, but could there really be a resurgence of the virus like we experienced during the pandemic years?

According to virologists, the answer seems to be ‘maybe’: since July, the number of people newly infected with Covid-19 has been slowly rising from a very low level.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), nine people per 100,000 inhabitants became newly infected in Germany last week. A year ago, there were only around 270 reported cases.

Various Corona variants are currently on the loose in the country. According to the RKI, the EG.5 (also called Eris) and XBB.1.16 lines were each detected in the week ending September 3rd with a share of just under 23 percent.

The highly mutated variant BA.2.86 (Pirola), which is currently under observation by the World Health Organisation (WHO), also arrived in the country this week, according to RKI.

High number of unreported case

The RKI epidemiologists also warned about a high number of unreported cases since hardly any testing is done. They pointed out that almost half of all registered sewage treatment plants report an increasing viral load in wastewater tests.

The number of hospital admissions has also increased slightly, but are still a far cry from the occupation rate amid the pandemic. Last week it was two per 100,000 inhabitants. In the intensive care units, only 1.2 percent of all beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Still, a good three-quarters (76.4 percent) of people in Germany have been vaccinated at least twice and thus have basic immunity, reported RKI.

Since Monday, doctors’ offices have been vaccinating with the adapted vaccine from Biontech/Pfizer, available to anyone over 12 years old, with a vaccine for small children set to be released the following week and one for those between 5 and 11 to come out October 2nd.

But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has so far only recommended that people over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions get vaccinated.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Who should get a Covid jab this autumn in Germany?

“The pandemic is over, the virus remains,” he said. “We cannot predict the course of coming waves of corona, but it is clear that older people and people with pre-existing conditions remain at higher risk of becoming severely ill from Covid-19”

The RKI also recommended that people with a cold voluntarily wear a mask. Anyone exhibiting cough, cold, sore throat or other symptoms of a respiratory illness should voluntarily stay at home for three to five days and take regular corona self-tests.

However, further measures such as contact restrictions are not necessary, he said.

One of many diseases

As of this autumn, Covid-19 could be one of many respiratory diseases. As with influenza, there are no longer absolute infection figures for coronavirus.

Saarbrücken pharmacist Thorsten Lehr told German broadcaster ZDF that self-protection through vaccinations, wearing a mask and getting tested when symptoms appear are prerequisites for surviving the Covid autumn well.

Only a new, more aggressive mutation could completely turn the game around, he added.

On April 7th of this year, Germany removed the last of its over two-year long coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing in some public places.

READ ALSO: German doctors recommend Covid-19 self-tests amid new variant

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