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Merkel’s party braced for ‘slap in the face’ as polls take place in German states

Germans headed to the polls in two key regional elections Sunday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives bracing for a drubbing on anger over a corruption scandal and a series of pandemic setbacks.

Published: 14 March 2021 07:20 CET
Updated: 14 March 2021 14:54 CET

Merkel's party braced for 'slap in the face' as polls take place in German states

Voters enter a polling station in Ludwigsburg, southern Germany. Photo: Thomas Kienzle / AFP

The votes for new regional parliaments in the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg are seen as a bellwether of the nation’s mood ahead of September 26 general elections — which will be the first in over 15 years not to feature Merkel.

Things aren’t looking good for the conservatives. Recent surveys have shown that support for Merkel’s centre-right CDU/CSU alliance has fallen to a one-year low at around 30 percent as Germans sour on its coronavirus crisis management.

“Merkel’s CDU is facing a disaster,” the top-selling Bild tabloid said, calling the polls a “corona election”.

The conservatives, it said, should brace for “a slap in the face from voters” .

Merkel’s centre-right CDU and its Bavarian CSU sister party have been roiled by damaging claims about MPs apparently profiting from face mask deals early on in the pandemic, forcing three lawmakers to step down in recent days.

Deepening the conservatives’ woes is growing public anger about a sluggish and bureaucratic vaccination campaign, a delayed start to free rapid testing and stubbornly high infection rates despite months of shutdowns.

Germans could perhaps look past the “mask affair”, Der Spiegel weekly wrote, “if citizens felt that the government was doing its job, protecting it from the virus and guiding it through the crisis. But it’s not”.

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In Rhineland-Palatinate, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have overtaken the CDU in opinion polls, paving the way for popular state premier Malu Dreyer to head another coalition government with the Greens and the pro-business FDP.

Most closely watched will be the vote in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the only German state to have a premier from the Green party.

The left-leaning ecologists there currently govern together with the CDU, in what could serve as a blueprint for the first federal government of the post-Merkel era.

Opinion polls however show the CDU headed for its worst-ever result in the affluent southwestern state, while the Greens have widened their lead. The environmentalists have also seen their popularity rise nationwide in recent years, on growing concern about climate change.

The first exit polls are expected shortly after 6pm.

Because of the pandemic, a higher than usual number of voters cast their ballots in advance by mail.

Analysts say this could make the early estimates less reliable, since many postal ballots might have arrived before the mask corruption revelations.

In Stuttgart, the capital city of Baden-Wuerttemberg, voter Juergen Toll said “the whole coronavirus crisis” had made for a tough choice in the polling booth.

“Some say let’s go left, others say let’s go right, it’s difficult to make the right decision,” he told AFP.

Strict hygiene measures were in place for those voting in person, including mandatory face masks and social distancing, an AFP journalist saw in Stuttgart, the capital of Baden-Wuerttemberg

‘Poison’

Some German commentators have called the mask scandal the conservatives’ “biggest crisis” since a slush-fund controversy in the 1990s ensnared former chancellor Helmut Kohl.

New CDU chief Armin Laschet has rubbished the comparison as “absurd” but he too has sharply criticised the MPs caught up in the row, joining a chorus of condemnation from across the political spectrum.

To stop the bleed ahead of Sunday’s votes, the CDU/CSU gave all of its lawmakers until Friday evening to declare any financial benefits gained from the pandemic.

CSU lawmakers Georg Nusslein and CDU lawmaker Nikolas Loebel resigned last week on allegations they pocketed hundreds of thousands of euros for acting as middlemen in the contracts.

CDU lawmaker Mark Hauptmann then stepped down after media reports accused him of lobbying for foreign governments including Azerbaijan, and promoting over-priced masks. He denies receiving any payments.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, seen as the nation’s moral arbiter, said politicians cashing in on a crisis was “poison for democracy”.

Merkel legacy

It all marks a stunning reversal of fortune for veteran chancellor Merkel. Her coalition government, made up of the CDU/CSU and junior coalition partner the SPD, initially won praise at home and abroad for taming the first Covid-19 wave last spring, when Germans rallied behind trained scientist Merkel’s virus measures.

But a resurgence in cases at the end of 2020 proved harder to suppress and Germany’s 16 federal states have increasingly gone their own way on school and shop reopenings, leading to a patchwork of rules.

Much of the blame for the disappointing vaccine pace and rapid test rollout has fallen on Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU), once seen as a potential contender for Merkel’s job.

Merkel herself has come under fire, with observers saying the pandemic missteps risk tarnishing her legacy in the final stretch.

“Crises were always her greatest hour,” said Spiegel. “This time, she doesn’t appear to have the situation under control.”

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.