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Quick intervention prevented ‘up to 100,000’ coronavirus deaths in Germany, says top virologist

Virologist Christian Drosten says without early testing and research, between 50,000 to 100,000 more coronavirus deaths would have occurred in Germany.

Quick intervention prevented 'up to 100,000' coronavirus deaths in Germany, says top virologist
German virologist Christian Drosten. Photo: DPA

In an interview with German news magazine Spiegel, Drosten also said it's possible that there won't be a second wave of the pandemic in the country.

But if there is, Drosten said a strict lockdown could be avoided because the country is well-prepared.

Drosten, Director of the Instiute for Virology at the Berlin University Hospital Charité, is confident that the pandemic in Germany can be kept under control.

“Maybe we can avoid a second shutdown,” he said. He added that is now a “theoretical possibility” that Germany will “get through without a second wave”.

Science now has a better understanding of the infection process. “Now we know the virus better, we know how it spreads,” said Drosten, with reference to so-called superspreaders, who tend to pass the virus on to many people when infected.

“And such an occurrence of infection can be better controlled than a uniform spread under the radar, as we assumed at the beginning,” he said.

It is important to detect and stop a possible outbreak early on by “quarantining all contact persons” without first carrying out lengthy tests, he said.

READ ALSO: Why Germany has coronavirus infections under control despite easing restrictions

Quarantine could be shorter

However, the quarantine period could be shortened considerably: in future, people who have come into contact with a coronavirus-infected person should only have to spend a week in isolation, because “the incubation period and the time in which one is contagious, all this is much shorter than initially thought”, said Drosten.

Currently the quarantine period is 14 days.

Germany is in a good situation, said the virologist. “We stopped a pandemic wave with comparatively mild measures, and we did it very efficiently.”

Unlike several other European countries, Germany allowed residents to go outside in groups of two during its lockdown, focussing instead on quickly shutting down non-essential businesses in mid-March.

It has now gradually been opening shops, restaurants and tourism infrastructure, but under strict hygiene and social distancing requirements.

READ ALSO: Coronavirus in Germany: Which restrictions are changing from Monday May 25th?

A large part of this successful disease control can be attributed to his research team at the Charité; without his coronavirus diagnostic test, Germany would have been less prepared for the pandemic.

Drosten said: “If we had not been able to test so early, if we had not informed the politicians – I believe we would now have 50,000 to 100,000 more deaths in Germany.”

READ ALSO: What's the latest on coronavirus in Germany and what do I need to know?

As of Friday May 29th, there had been a total of 182,450 confirmed coronavirus infections in Germany (an increase of about 250 from the previous day) and 8,472 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University figures.

A total of 164,080 people are reported to have recovered from the disease.

Doubts about a vaccine

Meanwhile, the Director of the Institute of Virology at the University of Bonn, Hendrick Streeck, says he is sceptical about the prospect of finding a vaccine against Covid-19.

“More than 500 vaccines against HIV have already been developed, a few have been tested for effectiveness, but none has worked,” he told the Editorial Network Germany.

READ ALSO: How worried should we be when Germany reports a higher coronavirus infection rate?

He said people should be prepared for the possibility that a coronavirus vaccine is not on the horizon, adding that predictions about a point in time when it would arrive are “not serious”.

Nevertheless, Streeck believes that the virus remains controllable. He said there may be possible new outbreaks but that Germany could deal with it.

“This (an outbreak) will perhaps happen in the autumn in a more frequent and surprising way – but I don't believe that we will see a second wave that will literally flood and overwhelm us,” he said.

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HEALTH

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

It’s back again: amid sinking temperatures, the incidence of Covid-19 has been slowly rising in Germany. But is this enough to merit worrying about the virus?

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

More people donning face masks in supermarkets, friends cancelling plans last minute due to getting sick with Covid-19. We might have seen some of those familiar reminders recently that the coronavirus is still around, but could there really be a resurgence of the virus like we experienced during the pandemic years?

According to virologists, the answer seems to be ‘maybe’: since July, the number of people newly infected with Covid-19 has been slowly rising from a very low level.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), nine people per 100,000 inhabitants became newly infected in Germany last week. A year ago, there were only around 270 reported cases.

Various Corona variants are currently on the loose in the country. According to the RKI,  the EG.5 (also called Eris) and XBB.1.16 lines were each detected in the week ending September 3rd with a share of just under 23 percent. 

The highly mutated variant BA.2.86 (Pirola), which is currently under observation by the World Health Organisation (WHO), also arrived in the country this week, according to RKI. 

High number of unreported case

The RKI epidemiologists also warned about a high number of unreported cases since hardly any testing is done. They pointed out that almost half of all registered sewage treatment plants report an increasing viral load in wastewater tests.

The number of hospital admissions has also increased slightly, but are still a far cry from the occupation rate amid the pandemic. Last week it was two per 100,000 inhabitants. In the intensive care units, only 1.2 percent of all beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Still, a good three-quarters (76.4 percent) of people in Germany have been vaccinated at least twice and thus have basic immunity, reported RKI. 

Since Monday, doctors’ offices have been vaccinating with the adapted vaccine from Biontech/Pfizer, available to anyone over 12 years old, with a vaccine for small children set to be released the following week and one for those between 5 and 11 to come out October 2nd.

But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has so far only recommended that people over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions get vaccinated.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Who should get a Covid jab this autumn in Germany?

“The pandemic is over, the virus remains,” he said. “We cannot predict the course of coming waves of corona, but it is clear that older people and people with pre-existing conditions remain at higher risk of becoming severely ill from Covid-19”

The RKI also recommended that people with a cold voluntarily wear a mask. Anyone exhibiting cough, cold, sore throat or other symptoms of a respiratory illness should voluntarily stay at home for three to five days and take regular corona self-tests. 

However, further measures such as contact restrictions are not necessary, he said.

One of many diseases

As of this autumn, Covid-19 could be one of many respiratory diseases. As with influenza, there are no longer absolute infection figures for coronavirus.

Saarbrücken pharmacist Thorsten Lehr told German broadcaster ZDF that self-protection through vaccinations, wearing a mask and getting tested when symptoms appear are prerequisites for surviving the Covid autumn well. 

Only a new, more aggressive mutation could completely turn the game around, he added.

On April 7th of this year, Germany removed the last of its over two-year long coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing in some public places.

READ ALSO: German doctors recommend Covid-19 self-tests amid new variant

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