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Merkel’s CDU sidelined as Left party wins closely watched east German vote

Politicians in the eastern German state of Thuringia re-elected a former state premier Wednesday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU party sitting out the vote after a first try sank it into a deep crisis.

Published: 4 March 2020 17:18 CET
Updated: 5 March 2020 09:21 CET

Merkel's CDU sidelined as Left party wins closely watched east German vote

The Left's Bodo Ramelow. Photo: DPA

Popular former state premier Bodo Ramelow, of the radical-left Die Linke party, was returned to power, despite falling four votes short of an absolute majority after the centre-right CDU abstained.

It was the second attempt in a month to form a working government in the former East German state, after CDU MPs there set off an earthquake in national politics by voting with the far-right AfD in the first vote on February 5th.

The unprecedented alliance with the far-right triggered the departure of Merkel's designated successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and sparked a new leadership contest for the German chancellor's party.

Amid the national outrage, elected liberal candidate Thomas Kemmerich immediately stepped down, leaving the state rudderless.

As Wednesday's rerun of the vote pitted the far-left Ramelow against far-right firebrand Björn Höcke, the only viable option left for the CDU was to abstain in order to hold to its national edict of not cooperating with either extreme.

“We are returning to stable conditions,” said Ramelow , adding that Thuringia had “overcome a crisis of democratic legitimation”.

He refused to shake Höcke's hand after the vote, accusing him and his party of being “arsonists” who were “stamping on democracy”.

Bodo Ramelow refuses to shake Björn Höcke's hand. Photo: DPA

New force on the right

A fundamental article of faith for the CDU during its decades of dominance over German politics since 1949 was that no political force could be allowed to emerge to its right.

But Merkel has shifted the party closer to the centre.

The repeated rescue programmes for Greece during the eurozone crisis and above all Merkel's decision to allow in more than one million migrants and refugees since 2015 stoked the rise of the AfD.

Double-digit scores for AfD in state elections in the East in recent years have made it increasingly tough to build working coalitions that shut out both extremes.

With the party leadership – and likely the candidacy for the chancellorship in 2021 – now up for grabs, those tensions are boiling up to the surface.

The race to a new CDU leadership election on April 25 is a fresh struggle for control between supporters of the chancellor's centrist course and those who believe the party must tack right.

Crucible

With no majority possible in Thuringia without either AfD or Die Linke, the state became a unique crucible for the CDU's repeated declarations that it would work with neither.

In Wednesday's re-run, Ramelow had initially hoped to persuade individual CDU MPs to edge him to the absolute majority needed in the first two rounds, threatening to otherwise call fresh elections.

Yet he changed strategy on Wednesday morning as conservatives railed against a potential cooperation with the far-left.

“CDU votes for a Linke party candidate are unacceptable,” moderate party leadership contender Armin Laschet said Sunday, echoing conservative rivals like long-time Merkel rival Friedrich Merz.

Yet after the CDU's abstention on Wednesday, Hoecke accused them of “holding open the door” for Ramelow, and claimed that the former East German Communist Party SED had “risen again”.

One of the most radical voices within AfD, the former history teacher's rhetoric includes calls for “tempered inhumanity” in removing non-ethnic Germans from the country.

Such statements placed him beyond the pale even for the more hardline eastern CDU branches.

On Wednesday, parliamentary president Birgit Keller opened the sitting with a tribute to the victims of a deadly racist attack in neighbouring state Hesse two weeks ago.

Ramelow is now expected to lead a minority government until new elections in April 2021, in a compromise agreed with the CDU at the height of the crisis two weeks ago.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.