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Germany debates how to spend massive budget surplus

German economic growth plummeted in 2019, official data is expected to show Wednesday, stoking renewed debate about how to use fiscal surpluses to boost gross domestic product.

Germany debates how to spend massive budget surplus
Photo: DPA

Persistently anaemic growth and a multitude of structural challenges — from an ageing population to crumbling infrastructure and the car industry's transition to electric power — have prompted calls at home and abroad for Berlin to do more.

Critics say Chancellor Angela Merkel's successive governments have stuck too dogmatically to a no-new-debts policy known as “black zero”.

READ ALSO: 'Germany will do what's needed without new debts'

In recent years, billions of euros in government budget surpluses have not been deployed to maximum growth-boosting effect.

Figures released this week showed the federal government alone booked a surplus of 13.5 billion in 2019.

Separate data on Wednesday could highlight a surplus across all levels of government of up to 1.6 percent of GDP, Berenberg bank analysts predict, down from 1.9 percent in 2018.

A fresh tug of war is already beginning between Merkel's conservative CDU party and their SPD centre-left junior coalition partners over how to spend the bonanza.

Where the SPD favours more investment and higher social spending, many CDU politicians want tax cuts for individuals and businesses.

“Short-term stimulus is still not really needed” in Germany, ING's Brzeski said. “Instead, the surplus should be used to step up investment efforts in the well-known sectors: digitalization, infrastructure and education,” he added.

Possibly in response to such arguments, the government said Tuesday it had agreed to pump 62 billion euros into modernizing its rail network system, as part of a wider plan to incite commuters to opt for greener public transport options.

While the political battles are fought out, “Germany's attractiveness as a site for investment is gradually falling away, because economic policy is becoming less favourable”, Berenberg's Schmieding said.

READ ALSO: Germany to invest €62 billion to modernize rail network

'The fat years are over'

After 1.5 percent economic expansion in 2018, last year's figure should come out around 0.5 percent, the Bundesbank central bank and leading economic think-tanks have forecast.

“The fat years are over, at least when it comes to growth,” ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski told AFP, predicting “probably the weakest annual growth rate since 2013.”

“The golden decade Germany has seen for growth is gradually coming to an end,” agreed Holger Schmieding of Berenberg bank.

Trade conflicts, political upsets such as Brexit, slowing global growth and a near-unprecedented rate of change in the car industry have all weighed on Germany's manufacturing backbone in recent years.

Meanwhile, solid domestic consumption, buttressed by low unemployment, has helped keep the economy out of recession.

As 2020 begins, a “phase one” US-China trade deal is set to be signed Wednesday, while the next Brexit steps are clear after Boris Johnson's resounding British election victory last month.

Both could provide much-needed relief to export-oriented German manufacturers.

But ratings agency Moody's warned Tuesday of a “deteriorating global environment” that “will weigh on growth in (eurozone) member states' open economies in 2020”.

The Bundesbank sees growth this year marking time at around the 2019 level, while the think-tankers and some bank analysts including Brzeski expect a mini rebound, to around one percent.

Destatis said GDP “grew slightly” in the fourth quarter of 2019, without providing figures — “a moderately positive starting base for 2020,” tweeted analyst Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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