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ELECTIONS

OPINION: Why the Spanish election result brings hope for Britons fearing Brexit

The Spanish election result gives Britons in Spain fearing Brexit, reason to be hopeful ahead of the crucial UK general election, explains Bremain in Spain's Sue Wilson.

OPINION: Why the Spanish election result brings hope for Britons fearing Brexit
Protesters stage a rally in Uxbridge, Boris Johnson's constituency. Photo: AFP

Thanks to Brexit, I’ve recently taken more interest in British politics than in the political situation here in Spain. I’ve focused on the forthcoming British election, rather than on the Spanish one, although both have come around rather quickly!

It could be argued that the general election in Spain will affect the lives of British migrants more than the British general election. For many British citizens in Spain who are younger and working, that’s probably true. They pay into the Spanish system, are entitled to Spanish healthcare, and will have Spanish state pensions. They may have Spanish spouses and family. Their kids probably speak Spanish first, English second, and will be completely integrated into Spanish society. Meanwhile, many Leave voters in the UK tell me that I voted with my feet – by moving to Spain – and, therefore, I should have no further say in British politics.

As a retired Brit relying on a state pension from the UK, I feel more in the hands of the British government than the Spanish one. The British government pays for my healthcare and determines the value of my pension and whether it will continue to increase annually. Since the June 2016 referendum, Brexit has determined the value of my monthly income, because all the political twists and turns have daily affected the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

Another personal factor is that I can still vote in the imminent British election – although possibly for the last time. In Spain, I can’t vote for the national government because all Brits here are disenfranchised from doing so. Sadly, many of us are disenfranchised from voting for any national government, thanks to broken promises by the Conservative government about restoring Votes for Life.

READ MORE:  

While I was being distracted by Brexit, last week’s Spanish election rather snuck up on me. For some time, Spanish politics has existed in a state of upheaval.  Unsurprisingly, with so many problems at home, the Spanish public and media have only taken a passing interest in British politics and Brexit.

Following the recent Spanish election result, we can see light at the end of the political tunnel here. The rise of the far-right – not just in Spain but across Europe – has been an ongoing concern. Many people thought that recent events in Catalonia would see the Vox party increasing in popularity and power.

While Vox did increase its share of the vote, becoming the third largest force in congress with 52 seats, the actual result was that Spain now has a left-wing coalition government. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez achieved a governing alliance between the Socialist Party and Unidas Podemos within hours of the election – a seemingly impossible feat. With 155 seats between them, PSOE/Podemos still need the endorsement of other parties. However, there’s hope that Spanish politics can finally move forwards and spare the country yet another election.

The EU welcomed the news from Spain “with much more relief than concern”. The rise of the far-right has worried the EU for some time. Yet, despite Vox rising in popularity, Spain now has one of the most left-wing governments in Europe.

We’re right to be concerned about the growth of nationalist and far-right groups, both in the UK and Spain. Nevertheless, the outcome of the Spanish election proves that the right gaining support doesn’t necessarily lead to a more right-wing government.

Back in the UK, the Brexit Party may gain further support from the British public on December 12th, but this doesn’t guarantee it a single seat in the next parliament. With the British ‘first past the post’ electoral system, support does not necessarily translate into power.

The result of the forthcoming British election is proving almost impossible to predict, with many voters determined not to vote along normal party lines, putting Brexit ahead of more usual political concerns. If all goes well, the outcome will end the rule of the most right-wing British government I’ve seen since I’ve been old enough to vote.

Let’s hope the new British government can learn lessons from Spain and work cross-party to form a coalition for the benefit of the nation. If that happens, perhaps we can avoid further elections for a few years – in Spain and Britain.

Fingers crossed!

By Sue Wilson – Chair of Bremain in Spain

More information:

For more on how to register, how to apply for a postal/proxy vote, including forms to download, please check out the Bremain in Spain website, where you'll find a wealth of election information, including advice on tactical voting.

OPINION: 'We moved to Spain in good faith and we shouldn't lose that right'

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POLITICS

Why regional elections in Catalonia matter to Spain’s future

Early elections in Catalonia on May 12th could have political ramifications that go beyond the northern region and prolong the seemingly never-ending melodrama of Spanish politics.

Why regional elections in Catalonia matter to Spain's future

Sunday May 12th will see regional elections in Catalonia at a time when political uncertainty and unpredictability reigns not only in the northern region but across the country. As such, the results could, and likely will, have political ramifications at the national level, perhaps even on the stability of the government itself.

If you follow Spanish politics, you’ll have probably noticed that there’s been quite a lot going on recently. And even if you aren’t a semi-obsessive politico, Spanish politics has been so melodramatic, so unpredictable and (at times) so ridiculous, that in recent months it’s been hard to ignore.

In short: Socialist (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made a pact with Catalan separatist parties to stay in power after last summer’s general election. Part of this was an amnesty law that granted a legal amnesty to people involved in the failed 2017 referendum independence bid, but it caused outrage across many parts of the country and led to weeks of protests, some of which were violent.

READ ALSO: Why Sánchez’s Catalan alliance is a risky bet in Spain

Though Sánchez faced a lot of public ire, Carles Puigdemont, the former President of Catalonia who is a fugitive from Spanish law, takes the brunt of the hatred, particularly from the Spanish right and far-right. Puigdemont is running again in the regional election on May 12th, and has already stated that he will leave politics if he isn’t re-elected.

More recently, Sánchez shocked the country by publishing a highly personal letter on Twitter/X, reportedly released without the advice of his advisors or cabinet colleagues, stating that he was taking five days out to consider his future following repeated attacks against his wife over alleged influence peddling. This came right before the Catalan campaign kicked off and essentially brought politics to a standstill and left the country in limbo.

Sánchez then disappeared from public life, shut himself away in his La Moncloa residence and considered his future, leaving the country in the midst of what felt like a telenovela – a soap opera. On Monday he announced he was staying on and attempted to use the decision as a pivot moment to reinvigorate his government, strengthen Spanish democracy, and to make a stand against what Sánchez describes as the far-right ‘mud machine’.

Others view things differently. While Sánchez supporters see the debacle as a brave affront to right-wing harassment and lawfare tactics used against him, critics have described it as farcical, manipulative, and opposition Partido Popular leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said that Sánchez had “made a fool of himself” and embarrassed Spain on the global scene.

READ ALSO: What has ‘lawfare’ got to do with Spain’s amnesty and why is it controversial?

Many view the move as cynical electioneering, and Sánchez does indeed have a well deserved reputation as a somewhat machiavellian political maneuverer.

But how can Sánchez’s five day mini-sabbatical be electioneering if Spain had elections as recently as last summer? Here’s where the upcoming Catalan elections come in again.

READ ALSO: PROFILE: Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, a risk-taker with a flair for political gambles

Why regional elections in Catalonia matter to Spain’s future

In short: the results of the Catalan elections have the potential to disrupt the delicate power balance in Madrid.

Some context: in the Catalan regional government, pro-independence parties Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), Junts per Catalunya (Puigdemont’s party) and the smaller Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) have an absolute majority. This allowed separatist parties, namely ERC and Junts, greater political leverage when negotiating the amnesty with Sánchez and the PSOE last year.

Though some, particularly in Junts, would like the amnesty (which is still yet to be approved in the Senate) to go further, the national government has more or less survived since the summer based on this uneasy truce. Depending on the results in Catalonia on May 12th, we may see just how fragile it really is.

Exiled Catalan separatist leader, MEP and founder of the Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) party Carles Puigdemont gives a speech during a meeting to present his list for the upcoming regional elections in Catalonia, in Elna, southwestern France. (Photo by Matthieu RONDEL / AFP)

What do the polls say? Most seem to have the PSC (the PSOE’s sister party in Catalonia) making big gains and becoming the biggest party in the Generalitat, with leader Salvador Illa becoming President. According to RTVE’s average of polls, the PSC is on course to win 39 seats, six more than in 2021. Junts is projected to be in second place with 32 seats and would thus overtake ERC, which would get 28, a loss of 5 seats, though some polls put ERC in second and Junts third.

However, no poll gives the PSC an absolute majority of 68 seats needed to govern alone. As such, the PSC, should it win, will require the votes of far-left Comuns-Sumar, but also a coalition arrangement with a pro-independence party, most likely ERC.

However, polling from El Nacional, a Catalan newspaper, estimates that undecided voters still make up a third (33.5 percent) of the Catalan electorate, so there will likely be some variation from polling data to the results on election day.

Interestingly, Sánchez’s five day reflection period seems to have actually boosted PSOE polling numbers overall on a national level. According to a flash poll taken following the letter, the PSOE vote intention surged.

But the move has not proven popular with politicians in Catalonia, particularly among the pro-independence parties Sánchez’s government relies on in Madrid. The current President of the Generalitat and ERC candidate Pere Aragonès accused Sánchez of exploiting the “empathy” of the Spanish public “for an exclusively political purpose”, describing the “five day comedy” as “yet another electoral manoeuvre.” 

The ERC has even made a complaint to Spain’s electoral authority about Sánchez’s decision and subsequent interview on Spanish state TV, claiming it could have breached electoral rules by favouring the PSOE candidacy in the Catalan election.

Junts general secretary Jordi Turull, meanwhile, has accused Sánchez of “interfering in the Catalan election.”

Remember, these are the parties that prop up the Sánchez government at the national level.

Protesters hold up a banner reading “Pedro (Sánchez), traitor” and “Spain is not for sale” during an anti-amnesty protest in Madrid. (Photo by Pierre-Philippe MARCOU / AFP)

Potential scenarios

So, it’s safe to say that things are tense in Spanish politics. Sánchez has angered a lot of people with his period of reflection — not only his opponents but also those who prop up his government in Congress. Conversely, the move does seem to have increased PSOE support overall ahead of polling day, and the PSC seems to be on course to win in Catalonia.

With no party likely to win an absolute majority, the Catalan results on May 12th will require coalitions, which could in turn have a ripple effect on alliances in Madrid. This is principally because there is a possibility that ERC or Junts could be left out of the Generalitat, which could remove the incentive for one (or even both, in the unlikely event of a PSC absolute majority) pro-independence parties to keep Sánchez in the Moncloa, or at the very least to demand more from him.

The polls suggest the most likely outcome is the PSC winning the elections but needing the support of ERC. At the national level, this could lead to a split in the separatist movement and would leave Junts’ support in Congress up in the air. Junts could theoretically withdraw its support, topple the government, and trigger further general elections.

READ ALSO: Carles Puigdemont, Spain’s separatist kingmaker

Another scenario touted by political pundits is that pro-independence parties could again win an absolute majority between them. This would heap further political pressure on Sánchez, who, after already spending a lot of political capital on the amnesty law, would likely be pressured for further concessions from the Generalitat, namely another referendum but also changes to the amnesty law. Separatist parties would point to their victory, against polling predictions, as a mandate for pushing the pro-independence movement further.

Of course, there’s also the (admittedly unlikely) possibility that Junts per Catalunya win an absolute majority and Puigdemont becomes President of the region, something that would set the scene for his return to Spain and send shockwaves through Spanish politics.

Perhaps there is no better indication of how important this election is than the fact that Sánchez’s first public appearance since his ‘will he, won’t he’ resignation stunt was at the Fería de Barcelona.

Whatever happens in Catalonia on May 12th, two things seem certain: firstly, that people from across the country will be tuning in for the results; and secondly, as the last few years have shown, predictions are essentially useless and anything can happen in Spanish politics. 

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