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ECONOMY

Germany blames Brexit and trade wars for failing growth prospects

Germany on Thursday slashed its growth outlook for next year, saying it expects trade conflicts, Brexit and other sources of uncertainty abroad to continue weighing on the economy.

Germany blames Brexit and trade wars for failing growth prospects
Storm clouds looming over Frankfurt's banking centre. Photo: DPA

The first recession in nine years marks the end of a post-2008 golden decade for Europe's largest economy, which has enjoyed steady growth buoyed by both exports and domestic demand.

But the country's massive trade surplus — a source of national pride for many media outlets — has turned into a weakness since President Donald Trump launched his US-China trade war.

Other risks to international commerce, like Brexit uncertainty, have also weighed on Germany.

READ ALSO: No-deal Brexit would 'slam German growth' in 2020

Europe's largest economy should expand by 1.0 percent in 2020, the economy ministry said, down from a 1.5 percent forecast it made earlier this year.

Nevertheless, “even if prospects are currently muted, there is no threat of an economic crisis,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said in a statement.

“Export-oriented industries” are suffering, but “domestic growth remains intact” with “rising employment and incomes”, he added.

For the full year 2019, government economists stuck to their projection of 0.5 percent growth this year.

That is a fraction of the 1.4 percent achieved in 2018 or 2.2 percent the year before.

Germany is already believed to be in a technical recession — defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

READ ALSO: German economy is 'down on its knees': Is a recession looming?

Economic output fell by 0.1 percent in April-June, and July-September figures slated for release next month are expected by the Bundesbank (central bank) to show another contraction.

Increasing numbers of large firms are announcing layoffs or slashing workers' hours, job creation is slowing and economic indicators point toward slowdown.

Germany is now the “problem child” of Europe, daily Süddeutsche Zeitung judged Thursday, with no other industrialized country apart from Italy slated to grow so slowly next year.

Target 'black zero'

With economic headwinds mounting, calls have grown at home and abroad for Germany to loosen the straps of its self-imposed fiscal straitjacket.

Economists, politicians and commentators are discussing whether it might be time to abandon Berlin's longstanding “black zero” policy of no new debt, allowing government to spend and stimulate growth.

International institutions like the IMF have long called on Germany to fork out more, repeating its appeal Tuesday for Berlin to deploy its financial firepower.

More such calls can be expected from a G20 finance ministers' gathering in Washington Thursday, which will likely highlight the potential benefits for Germany's partners.

“If the current economic slowdown in Germany leads to a rethink of the role of expansionary fiscal policies and reinterpreting the 'Black Zero', both the German and the eurozone economy would benefit,” said ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski.

“When, if not now, is the perfect time for investing in digital and traditional infrastructure projects given negative interest rates and high investment needs?” he asked.

So far, Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has resisted such calls, even if the finance ministry has said “Germany has the firepower for a real crisis” with stimulus and structural reform plans at the ready if needed.

For now, the government is still taking a cautious stance, highlighting that a shallow “technical” recession doesn't justify the high levels of government intervention seen during a deeper downturn.

What's more, opponents of simply throwing more money at Germany's problems note that even massive government budget surpluses raked in during the good years have not been used up.

“Please, take the money!” finance minister Olaf Scholz told municipalities, federal states and investors last month.

Scholz pointed to 15 billion available in green and infrastructure funds and subsidies he said had often been held up by slow or overly complex bureaucratic processes.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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