COPY LINK

For members

POLITICS

Will Germany soon have its first Green chancellor?

The Greens are continuing to ride high in the polls. And now a new survey has revealed nearly half of voters would like to see the party submit a candidate for chancellor in the next Bundestag elections.

Published: 7 June 2019 09:04 CEST

Will Germany soon have its first Green chancellor?

The Greens' co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck at a party event in Leipzig last year. Photo: DPA

Following the Green party’s record results in the European elections, the new poll shows 46 percent of Germans – nearly one in two people – are in favour of the party nominating a candidate for chancellor in the next Bundestag elections.

Meanwhile, Robert Habeck, co-chairman of the Greens, received the best score in the survey compared to other potential candidates for Germany's Chancellorship, including Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) who is Chancellor Angela Merkel's successor.

According to research by opinion institute YouGov, only 35 percent of respondents were against the idea of the Green party putting forward a chancellor candidate, while 19 percent did not provide any information on the topic.

Of the Green voters, a sweeping 86 percent said they were in favour of the party nominating a candidate for chancellor.

In contrast, less than a third of the respondents (30 percent) said that the Social Democrats (SPD) should put forward a candidate for chancellor. A total of 47 percent, on the other hand, think the centre-left party should not submit a candidate.

In the representative YouGov survey, 2,042 people were interviewed between June 3rd and 5th.

'Green wave' in Germany

The survey comes after the Greens became the second strongest force in Germany at the European elections at the end of last month, with 20.5 percent of the vote.

The Greens' Annalena Baerbock, Sven Giegold, Ska Keller and Robert Habeck campaigning for the Euro elections. Photo: DPA

Merkel's CDU and allies Christian Social Union (CSU) came first with just over 28 percent – but suffered heavy losses compared to the 2014 elections when the Union won just over 35 percent of the vote.

Her long-suffering coalition partner SPD received its poorest showing in an EU vote with around 15.8 percent, knocking the party into third place.

Commentators put the Greens' achievements down to the ‘Greta effect', pointing to the young Swedish climate change activist, Greta Thunberg, who has managed to mobilize people across the world to call out governments on environmental protection issues through Fridays for Future demos.

The Greens are also benefitting from the decline of the so-called Volkspartei (peoples' parties) – the CDU/CSU and SPD, as voters drift to parties that were traditionally on the sidelines but are now taking a centre-stage role.

Who could be future chancellor?

The Green hype in Germany is strong, with lots of media organizations discussing the future of the party and what happens next. The editor of conservative daily Die Welt even wrote an opinion piece called: 'The next chancellor is Annalena Baerbock'. Baerbock is the co-leader of the Greens, along with Habeck.

In the YouGov survey, Habeck (Baerbock was not listed as an option) scored best in comparison to potential candidates for chancellorship from the CDU/CSU and SPD.

A total of 25 percent of respondents would like him to succeed Merkel. Meanwhile, only 13 percent would like CDU leader Kramp-Karrenbauer to lead the country and 9 percent want SPD vice-chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, more than half – 53 percent – did not pick any of the three put forward.

But signalling the strength of the Greens, SPD voters put Habeck ahead of Scholz to take over as chancellor, with 33 to 22 percent.

Pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) voters were also most likely to pick Habeck as chancellor, while Alternative for Germany (AfD) voters would prefer Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Robert Habeck during the Bremen state elections which took place on the same night as the European elections. Photo: DPA

Greens take first place

It came after the Greens swept into first place in an ARD “Deutschlandtrend” poll, just ahead of the CDU/CSU.

Compared to the previous month, the party gained six percentage points to reach 26 percent.

According to the Infratest-Dimap survey, the CDU/CSU lost three percentage points, coming in second with 25 percent.

The SPD is continuing to dip in popularity after its European election disaster and the resignation of party leader Andrea Nahles.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of the CDU, and Andrea Nahles, who stepped down as SPD leader. Photo: DPA

Its value dropped by six points to 12 percent – the lowest figure recorded for the SPD in the Deutschlandtrend poll. The AfD climbed by one percentage point to 13 percent. The FDP remained unchanged at 8 percent, while The Left (Die Linke) lost two points and reached seven percent.

In the survey, almost three quarters of voters (72 percent) said they were less or not at all satisfied with the work of the government. This is 10 percentage points more than in the previous month, indicating that Germans are becoming more impatient with the ruling coalition.

A total of 28 percent of people said they were satisfied or very satisfied.

The only way is up

So is this a temporary spike in popularity or are the Greens really here for the long run?

Baden-Württemberg's State Premier Winfried Kretschmann, of the Greens, said his party was here to stay.

The Greens are “the first port of call” for questions about climate and species protection, which many people are concerned about, he told Bild. “It is therefore quite possible that my federal party will receive more support in the long term,” he added.

Kretschmann said that even large companies, such as Bosch, Daimler, Siemens, Porsche “and many more are now striving for climate neutrality” so they are interested in the Greens' climate protection stance.

He said Germany needs environmentally-friendly production to remain internationally relevant. That's why the Greens are the “new economic party,” he said.

Environmental protests

Meanwhile, climate change was still high on the agenda in the German political landscape.

Environmental campaigners were due to set up a camp in Berlin on Friday afternoon in protest against the government's climate policy. The action was registered with the police as a demonstration with 200 participants, due to take place on the meadow in front of the Chancellor's Office.

The construction of tents, however, is usually not permitted within the framework of the right to demonstrate.

It is possible, however, that organizers will flout the rules and arrive with tents anyway.

Earlier this week, a group of climate change protesters staged a “die-in” protest in Germany's Parliament.

About 20 of the students attending the “Youth and Parliament” event on Tuesday lay on the floor in front of parliamentary speaker Wolfgang Schäuble, while others held up a makeshift banner reading “Your Climate Policies equals Catastrophe.”

DPA reported that activist Maximilian Reimers said the stunt was meant to draw attention to how drastic the situation is and to put pressure on the government.

Member comments

Become a Member to leave a comment.

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.