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AfD support falls to lowest level in a year, poll finds

Support for Alternative for Germany (AfD) has fallen to its lowest level since March last year, according to a new poll.

Published: 8 April 2019 08:23 CEST

AfD support falls to lowest level in a year, poll finds

AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland in Berlin on April 4th. Photo: DPA

A survey published on Sunday by the German weekly Bild am Sonntag found the far-right party’s support has fallen to 12 per cent, its worst rating since March 2018.

It follows a drop in popularity at the start of the year, when the party polled at 13 percent in a Bild opinion poll. Surveys since then have shown a similar trend.

The survey paints a contrasting picture to September 2018 when a ‘Deutschlandtrend' survey published by German broadcaster ARD put the AfD at 18 percent. That made them the second strongest party in Germany after the Union.

The newest poll involved asking 2,355 respondents who they'd vote for if national elections were coming up. It was conducted between March 28th and April 3rd.

It came as the AfD, known for its anti-immigration stance, continued to battle a series of controversies.

As The Local reported last week, an investigation claimed that AfD member of parliament Markus Frohnmaier, who is based in Baden-Württemberg, could act as a puppet for Russia.

The BBC conducted the joint investigation into Russian documents together with German magazine Der Spiegel, German TV channel ZDF and the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

The documents dating from 2017 indicate that close allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin believed that Frohnmaier, who was elected to the Bundestag Lower house in September that year, was very partial to their strategic interests.

Frohnmaier told the BBC he was not aware of the documents.

At the weekend, Jörg Meuthen, the AfD's lead candidate for the European Parliament elections, which take place next month, dismissed allegations against his party as conspiracy theories and insisted it has “many good allies” in other European countries.

The party has come under scrutiny recently after it was discovered its co-leader Alice Weidel received more than €130,000 from Switzerland ahead of the 2017 national election — a possible breach of German electoral law.

Meuthen also came under fire over free election ads he and others in the party received from a Swiss-based PR agency.

CDU and SPD gain

Meanwhile, the Bild am Sonntag poll showed support for the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), its Bavarian sister party Christian Socialists (CSU), and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) had risen slightly.

The CDU/CSU parties increased by one point to 31 percent. The SPD also gained one percentage point to achieve 17 percent. But is still one point behind the Greens (18 percent), who are the second most popular party in Germany, according to the survey

According to the survey, the Left Party (Die Linke) remained stable at 9 percent, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) dropped slightly to 8 percent.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.