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Merkel: People’s parties are ‘in danger’

In light of falling poll results, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sees the status of the Christian Democrats (CDU) as a people's party in danger. Is there hope before the elections in Hesse this Sunday?

Published: 22 October 2018 10:36 CEST

Merkel: People's parties are 'in danger'

The CDU's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hesse Minister President Volker Bouffier on Sunday. Photo: DPA

If Germans continues to dwell on what could have been done differently with the refugee policy in 2015, rather than focusing on the party’s current agenda, “then we will lose the character of a people's party,” the party leader warned on Saturday at the state party conference of the Thuringian CDU.

The Chancellor further warned against “left experiments” before the state elections in Hesse next Sunday.

Both the CDU and SPD currently fear severe losses in the Hesse election this upcoming Sunday. According to the latest polls, the CDU stands to receive 26 percent of the vote, the Greens 20 to 22 percent, and and the SPD 20 to 21 percent.

The FDP and the Left are each estimated to reach about 8 percent of the vote, while the AfD would receive 12 percent of the votes. The Greens, SPD and Left could possibly achieve a majority together.

Like Merkel, Hesse's Minister President Volker Bouffier warned against such a set-up in the state parliament: “Those who refuse to vote for the CDU now will wake up with a left-wing majority,” he said after a meeting of the CDU federal executive in Berlin on Sunday.

“The last thing we need in Hesse would be a left-wing government,” said Bouffier, whose CDU has formed a coalition with the Greens since the 2013 state elections. “That would be catastrophic for this economically strong state. That would cost us thousands of jobs. That would reduce investment in our country and would cause immediate damage.”

CDU Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer also believes there’s “a very real danger” that there will be a left-wing government. Similarly as to when the CSU lost their ruling majority in the October 14th Bavarian election, Merkel could come under considerable pressure in the event of a loss of power in Hesse.

Low results nationwide

Nationwide, the Union and the SPD together only account for about 40 percent of the vote, according to the new “Sunday trend” by Emnid for the “Bild am Sonntag”. The CDU/CSU is at 25 percent while the the SPD stands at 15 percent – both all-time lows. The main winners are likely to be the Greens, who achieved 19 percent in the poll.

This weekend, SPD chairwoman Andrea Nahles defended the controversial grand coalition – threatened by an election shake up in Hesse – pointing out that the SPD is the party most committed to affordable housing and stable pensions.

“We make politics for the many and not for the few,” she told “Bild am Sonntag”.

Federal Family Minister Franziska Giffey (SPD) told Deutschlandfunk radio that “when things get difficult, you can't run away.The CDU/SPD coalition agreement included so many good points for the country which the two parties are still working to implement, she added.

An election quake in Hesse – possibly a Green prime minister – could also call into question Merkel's renewed candidacy for the CDU presidency at the party conference in December.

Merkel stressed that party chairmanship and chancellorship belong in one hand; otherwise power could crumble. For the SPD in particular, there are hardly any alternatives in nationwide surveys of 14 percent; in a new election it could only end up in fourth place behind the Greens and the AfD.

“For a year now, we have been dealing far too much with whether we should be offended or not,” Merkel said in view of the inner-party quarrels between the CDU and CSU following the poor results of the 2017 Bundestag elections (32.9 percent). “We should rather look to the future with optimism”.

The embattled SPD leader Nahles called on her party not to give up. “I am determined to roll up my sleeves and fight,” she said on Saturday at a European party conference of the Rhineland-Palatinate SPD. She remained optimistic that party leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel could become Minister President in Hesse on October, Nahles said.

The Green politician Cem Özdemir spoke in the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” of a “tectonic shift of plates in the party landscape” in view of Greens’ upward swing.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.