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Fitch ratings agency says Italian debt outlook now ‘negative’

Fitch ratings agency on Friday revised its outlook for Italian long-term debt from stable to negative, citing the risks of a "new and untested" coalition government.

Fitch ratings agency says Italian debt outlook now 'negative'
People stand in front of a "debt clock" screen displaying the Italy's public debt at the Rome's Termini central station. Photos: AFP

A statement from the New York-based agency said it expects “fiscal loosening” from the new populist government, possibly leaving “Italy's very high level of public debt more exposed to potential shocks.”

The lowered outlook comes almost exactly three months after the new coalition — joining the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega Nord, formerly the Northern League — came to power in elections that jolted the country's mainstream parties.

The partners campaigned as strongly anti-immigrant and as outspoken critics of the European Union.

Fitch said Italian risk had grown since its last review in March, given “the sizable policy differences between its coalition partners, and inconsistencies” between some electoral promises and the “stated objective to reduce public debt.”

The Lega Nord is most influential in Italy's north, while the Five Star Movement is strongest in the poorer south, and their economic approaches differ on issues including taxation.

“It is unclear how these policy tensions will be resolved,” Fitch said.

Italy's economy was hard hit by the 2008 global financial crisis and the Eurozone debt meltdown. It has resumed growth but faces an array of deep structural problems.

COVID-19

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany’s spending in pandemic

The German Constitutional Court rejected challenges Tuesday to Berlin's participation in the European Union's coronavirus recovery fund, but expressed some reservations about the massive package.

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany's spending in pandemic

Germany last year ratified the €750-billion ($790-billion) fund, which offers loans and grants to EU countries hit hardest by the pandemic.

The court in Karlsruhe ruled on two challenges, one submitted by a former founder of the far-right AfD party, and the other by a businessman.

They argued the fund could ultimately lead to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, having to take on the debts of other EU member states on a permanent basis.

But the Constitutional Court judges ruled the EU measure does not violate Germany’s Basic Law, which forbids the government from sharing other countries’ debts.

READ ALSO: Germany plans return to debt-limit rules in 2023

The judgement noted the government had stressed that the plan was “intended to be a one-time instrument in reaction to an unprecedented crisis”.

It also noted that the German parliament retains “sufficient influence in the decision-making process as to how the funds provided will be used”.

The judges, who ruled six to one against the challenges, did however express some reservations.

They questioned whether paying out such a large amount over the planned period – until 2026 – could really be considered “an exceptional measure” to fight the pandemic.

At least 37 percent of the funds are aimed at achieving climate targets, the judges said, noting it was hard to see a link between combating global warming and the pandemic.

READ ALSO: Germany to fast-track disputed €200 billion energy fund

They also warned against any permanent mechanism that could lead to EU members taking on joint liability over the long term.

Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said the ruling had “raised serious doubts whether the joint issuance to finance the fund is in line with” EU treaties.

“The German court — once again — emphasised German limits for EU fiscal integration,” he said.

The court had already thrown out a legal challenge, in April 2021, that had initially stopped Berlin from ratifying the financial package.

Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, then chancellor Angela Merkel sketched out the fund in 2020, which eventually was agreed by the EU’s 27 members in December.

The first funds were disbursed in summer 2021, with the most given to Italy and Spain, both hit hard by the pandemic.

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