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ECONOMY

Why Italy is still Europe’s poor relation

Italy's economy will grow slower than any other in the EU this year and business figures say an ongoing credit squeeze, the lack of a clear industrial strategy and political uncertainty mean they can see no sign of improvement.

Why Italy is still Europe's poor relation
The skyline of Milan, Italy's financial hub. Photo: elisalocci/Depositphotos

National data body ISTAT said on Monday it was anticipating output to increase one percent in 2017, slightly less than the centre-left government's prediction of 1.1 percent but better than the 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent forecasts of, respectively, the European Commission and the IMF.

READ ALSO: Italian millennials 'won't reach financial independence until age 50'

Italy is lagging behind its partners in the eurozone and political instability has been a key factor in that, says Fabio De Felice, founder and director of engineering consultancy Protom.

“The rules of the game are not clear,” he told AFP.

“And there is no clear industrial policy or any strategy about where we want to go, which markets we are targeting and how,” said the entrepreneur from Naples.

It is a view shared by Angelo Bruscino, who chairs the youth branch of the Confapi association of small and medium-sized companies. “Nobody can tell you what Italy's strategy is for energy, for dealing with bureaucracy … these kind of questions get pushed to one side by the day-to-day political debates.”

Bruscino said former prime minister Matteo Renzi's reform-focused administration had been responsible for “positive initiatives and signals”.

“But everything stopped,” once Renzi was forced to resign after losing a December referendum on constitutional reform, one of the key planks of his plan for shaking up how Italy is governed and does business. “There are still around 100 decrees that need to be approved for some of the laws Renzi passed to come into force.”

'No certainty'

With Renzi due to attempt a comeback at elections expected early next year, Italy is now being run by caretaker Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and the uncertainty over what comes next is seen as dampening an economy saddled with unemployment over 11.5 percent of the workforce.

“Italy needs a shock, a big acceleration of reforms, a broad industrial policy, especially in favour of small and medium-sized companies that are the motor of our economy,” says Bruscino, whose company, Ambiente Spa, specialises in advanced recycling.

READ ALSO: Everything you need to know about Italy's (very complex) political system

Fabio De Felice says the fragmented nature of Italy's entrepreneurial class is also driving underperformance.

While the made-in-Italy brand is as strong as ever in fashion-related luxury and food and drink, in other sectors the country is suffering from declining competitiveness while international rivals forge ahead on that front.

A snail-paced legal system and mountains of red tape are also long-established complaints of the Italian business community. “There is no certainty about how long it will take to complete court proceedings, no certainty about what rules are,” says De Felice.

Bruscino says he was involved in a Franco-German-Italian project to create an innovative plant in the Naples region: “The struggle to get all the necessary authorisations from the local authorities delayed everything by 18 months,” he says.

Now, in an ever more competitive world, such barriers to innovation can threaten the survival of companies, particularly young ones, the 37-year-old says.

And all of these problems are compounded by the ongoing credit squeeze created by the crisis in an Italian banking system labouring under the burden of nearly 350 billion euros worth of non-performing loans.

By Celine Cornu

READ ALSO: 'Brexit can make Italy great again – but it needs to act fast''Brexit can make Italy great again - but it needs to act fast'
Photo: Rawpixel/Depositphotos

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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