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BREXIT

European nationalists seek to ride Brexit to victory

A vote in favour of Brexit could embolden surging populist parties across Europe hoping to follow in Britain's footsteps and either leave the EU or significantly cut its powers, experts warn.

European nationalists seek to ride Brexit to victory
Photo: Jeff Djevdet/Creative Commons

From the Netherlands and France to Denmark and Austria, eurosceptic voices have been growing for some time, and would take succour from a 'Leave' vote by British voters on Thursday.

The European Union's nightmare scenario is that Brexit would trigger a domino effect and could ultimately lead to the dissolution of the 28-nation bloc.

A recent study by the Pew Research Centre found that over 40 percent of Europeans say they want more power returned to their countries.

Dutch far-right MP Geert Wilders, whose anti-Muslim party is topping polls ahead of elections next year, is a leading light in the EU's small but vocal “out” brigade.

'Totalitarian' EU

The firebrand politician has promised to pull the Netherlands immediately out of the “totalitarian” EU in case of electoral victory.

In France, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front has been less direct in her rhetoric, but nevertheless vowed to hold a referendum on the country's EU membership if she becomes president in 2017.

Calling herself “Madame Frexit”, she said Brexit would prove that “it is possible to live outside the EU”.

“France has possibly a thousand more reasons to want to leave the EU than the English,” Le Pen said at a gathering of far-right parties in Vienna on Friday.

In Italy, another hotbed of populist resurgence, the Northern League also wants to quit the EU.

“If this is Europe, it's better to be alone than in bad company,” its leader Matteo Salvini said recently.

The inbetweeners

While some simply want out, a majority of populist groups remain less radical in their approach.

Instead of leaving, parties like the Alternative for Germany and Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) want to regain more sovereignty.

“We love Europe (but) it needs improvement,” insisted FPOe leader Heinz-Christian Strache who has his sights set on becoming chancellor in 2018.

Experts note that Nordic countries, where populist parties are now either in government or represent a strong opposition force, are particularly prone to calling a referendum to renegotiate their EU membership.

“Small countries that are economically at least as affluent as the UK are the main ones at risk, especially Denmark and potentially also Sweden,” said Carsten Nickels of the Teneo analyst group in Brussels.

Many Scandinavians fear that the crises battering the bloc will affect the social fabric and standards of their respective welfare states.

Loud bark, no bite

Among the bloc's loudest critics are right-wing populist governments in Hungary and Poland, which regularly launch blistering attacks on the EU.

However, as newer member states, they are also among the biggest recipients of EU aid.

Much of the tough talk is in fact aimed at voters at home, experts say.

“Poland and Hungary without the European Union would not have any chance economically or politically and they know it,” said Werner Fasslabend of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna.

Neither country is in favour of Brexit, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urging Britons to vote to remain in the EU in an open letter published in British media on Monday.

“Hungary is proud to stand with you as a member of the European Union,” the ad read.

Even Hungary's radical right Jobbik party recently dropped its push to leave the EU, saying the migration crisis offered a chance to “transform” the bloc from within.

Stumbling blocks

While Brexit may fuel eurosceptic dreams of power, the populist lobby remains a fragmented bunch pushing very different agendas.

In wealthy northern and western European countries — the destination of hundreds of thousands of refugees last year — right-wingers have taken centre stage, railing against migrants and bailouts.

Down south, on the other hand, the financial crisis has sparked radical left movements like Spain's anti-austerity party Podemos, tipped to come second in elections three days after the UK referendum.

Beyond this division, there is also a gap between pre-election rhetoric and the reality of being in power, said Finnish political expert Emilia Palonen.

She pointed to the leader of Finland's nationalist Finns Party who dropped his “virulent calls for an EU exit” after becoming foreign minister last year.

And the winner is…

Experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin will rub his hands in glee at the prospect of a weakened Europe if Britain opts out.

“If the EU loses its power and is very much occupied with its own problems… Putin will use this chance to regain (former Soviet countries),” said Fasslabend.

The vote would also provide fodder for domestic propaganda, said Russian expert Sergei Utkin.

“Brexit would be another piece of (Russia's) ideological claim that Europe is falling down,” he told British newspaper the Guardian.

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TRAVEL NEWS

EES: Could the launch of Europe’s new border system be delayed again?

After being postponed several times already Europe's new biometric Entry/Exit border system (EES) is set to be rolled out in October, but with fears of lengthy queues, problems with a new app and demands for more time, could it be postponed again?

EES: Could the launch of Europe's new border system be delayed again?

Could the entry into operation of the EU entry/exit system (EES), the new biometric passport checks for non-EU citizens at the Schengen area’s external borders, be delayed yet again?

Originally planned for May 2022, EES has already been postponed many times.

The current launch date, set for October 2024, was chosen to avoid periods of peak traffic and France in particular had requested to avoid it being launched until after the Paris Olympics this summer.

When asked to confirm the October start date this week a spokesperson for the EU’s Commission told The Local that the “roadmap” for the EES IT system foresees it will be ready for Autumn 2024. But the actual start date, in other words, the day when passengers will have to register, would be confirmed nearer the time.

The spokesperson said: “The exact date will be determined by the European Commission and announced on the EES official website well in time for the start of operations.”

READ ALSO: Your key questions answered about Europe’s new EES passport checks

But the reasons are adding up to suggest an October start date is optimistic, perhaps even unlikely.

In the annual report on the ‘State of Schengen’ published last week, the European Commission spelt out that severe challenges remain if member states are to be ready on time.

“In 2023, efforts to ensure the entry into operation of the Entry-Exit System in the autumn of 2024 were accelerated… While important progress has been made across the Schengen area, some Member States are still falling behind, notably regarding the effective equipment of border crossing points. The Commission calls on all Member States to urgently accelerate preparations to ensure the timely implementation of the system…”

A map in the report shows that preparation is still “in progress” in 13 Schengen area countries, including Germany, Norway and Switzerland. “Outstanding issues” still impact Portugal, Malta and Bulgaria.

The state of play for the preparations for EES across EU and Schengen states. Image: European Commission.

There are also reports that EU heavyweight Germany is trying to persuade Brussels to delay.

Matthias Monroy, editor of the German civil rights journal Bürgerrechte & Polizei/CILIP claimed on his website that “the German government is lobbying in Brussels to postpone the date once again, as otherwise the German tests of the EES cannot be completed in full. Other EU countries are also behind schedule, with only eight of them having reported successful integration.”

Even on a French government website it talks of EES being rolled out some time “between the end of 2024 and 2025” rather than stating October 2024.

And according to recent media reports, French airports have been advised to be ready for November 6th, rather than October. 

READ ALSO: EES and Etias – what are the big upcoming travel changes in Europe?

A planned EU app, believed to be essential to the smooth operation of EES because it would allow non-EU visitors to register in advance of travel will not be ready, Gwendoline Cazenave, Managing Director of Eurostar International, the company operating train services via the Channel Tunnel, has told the BBC. The EU however insists the app does not need to be up and running before EES is introduced.

In the UK, which will be heavily impacted by EES due to the fact it is no longer in the EU and so British travellers are no longer EU citizens, the House of Commons European scrutiny committee is conducting an inquiry on the potential disruption the introduction of the EES will cause at the border.

Several respondents have recently raised the alarm about the possible delays the system could cause, especially at the UK-France border, which is used by millions of passengers each year who head to France and other countries across Europe.

Ashford Borough Council in Kent has warned of the possibility of more than 14 hours queues to reach the Port of Dover, which has already been struggling increased checked after Brexit.

The BBC reported that back in March, a P&O Ferries director said the IT system should be delayed again.

Airlines have also complained about the fact pre-travel EES requirements would make last minute bookings impossible.

The Union des Aéroports Français (UAF), which represents airports in France, has simply said more time is needed.

In other words, it would be little surprise if the roll out was delayed again beyond October 2024.

But the Commission spokesperson told The Local that “the timeline for the entry into operation of the EES took into account all the necessary activities to be performed by all relevant stakeholders to ensure a timely entry into operation. 

“The Commission is working very closely with eu-Lisa [the EU agency in charge of the IT system], the Member States and carriers to ensure that everything is ready for the timely and successful launch of the Entry Exit System.

“The roadmap for the delivery of the new IT architecture foresees that the Entry/Exit system will be ready to enter into operation in Autumn 2024.”

New digital border

The EES is a digital system to register travellers from non-EU countries when they cross a border in or out of the Schengen area, the travel-free area. It will be deployed in 29 countries across Europe including 25 EU states plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Ireland and Cyprus are the only EU members who won’t apply the EES system.

It doesn’t apply to non-EU nationals who are legally resident in an EU/Schengen area country or those with dual nationality of an EU /Schengen county. The system was designed to increase security and to ensure that non-EU nationals visiting the Schengen area short-term do not stay more than 90 days in any 180-day period.

Instead of having the passport stamped, travellers will have to scan it at self-service kiosks before crossing the border. However, fingerprints and a photo will have to be registered in front of a guard at the first crossing and there are huge concerns the extra time needed could generate long queues in the UK, where there are juxtaposed border checks with the EU.

Preparations are ongoing throughout Europe and some countries have made good progress.

In France, Getlink, the operator of the Channel Tunnel, has recently reported that new EES infrastructure is finished at its French terminal of Coquelles, which will allow travellers to register their biometric data while travelling.

Eurostar is also installing 49 kiosks in stations for the registration of passengers. But the Union des Aéroports Français (UAF), which represents airports in France, said more time is needed.

Exempted

Meanwhile, the Polish government has urged UK citizens who are beneficiaries of the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement to get a residence permit “in the context of EES/ETIAS”, even though there was not such an obligation to stay legally in Poland post-Brexit.

“Having such a document is beneficial as it will exempt from future Entry/Exit System (EES) registration when crossing external borders and from the need to obtain an ETIAS travel permit in relation to short-term travel to EU/Schengen countries,” the government page says.

This article as published in collaboration with Europe Street news.

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