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ECONOMY

Italy now a bright spot for foreign investors

Italy has leapt up eight places in a ranking of the world’s most attractive countries for foreign investment, mostly due to a revamp of its sclerotic labour market.

Italy now a bright spot for foreign investors
Italy has become more attractive to foreign investors. Photo: Kentee Gardin

Italy ranks 12th in the 2015 foreign direct investment confidence index by AT Kearney, the management consultancy firm, rising from 20th place last year.

The country, which is still grappling with one of the highest rates of unemployment in Europe, came ahead of sturdier economies including Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Despite weak growth in 2014, Italy “continued to attract high levels of investment”, the report said.

“In the face of a mounting unemployment crisis, the government worked to pass controversial labor market reforms under the Jobs Act that ease firing restrictions and address Italy’s rigid labor market.”

Foreign investors are also closely watching progress on other reforms being steered by premier Matteo Renzi, such as an overhaul of the public administration and judicial system.

Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan told reporters last week that the reforms would build the foundation for Italy’s long-term economic growth.

Investors have also been buoyed by recent deals between foreign and Italian companies, such as the acquisition of the household appliance firm Indesit by the US-based Whirlpool last year, and the merger between Alitalia and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad, which helped save the flagship carrier from bankruptcy.

Italy is also aggressively targeting Chinese business investors. More than 200 Italian companies are now in Chinese hands, AT Kearney said.

In March, China National Chemicals announced it would buy the tyre manufacturer Pirelli for $7.7 billion – one of the largest acquisitions by a Chinese state company.

Padoan said last week that the economy, which is expected to grow by 0.6 percent this year, is facing a “window of opportunity”, especially with an improvement in the macro-economic environment.

A reform clause in European Commission budget rules has given Italy, and other EU states in the midst of structural reforms, more room for new spending.

In April, the government said it had found €1.6 billion extra to spend this year by letting the national deficit rise slightly to 2.6 percent of GDP from 2.5 percent. The money will likely be spent on social initiatives.

Along with reforms, another priority is attracting more investment and helping businesses, especially when it comes to simplifying administration and improving access to finance for companies.

The US came first in AT Kearney's ranking of 25 countries, followed by China and the United Kingdom.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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