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ECONOMY

Business confidence hits 8-month high

German business confidence rose to its highest level in eight months in March, as optimism continues to grow about the outlook for Europe's biggest economy, the Ifo economic institute said on Wednesday.

The Ifo institute's closely watched business climate index rose to 107.9 points this month, its highest level since July 2014, the think tank said in a statement.

It was the fifth consecutive monthly increase and was better than analysts had been expecting.

"Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater optimism about future business developments," said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn. "The German economy is continuing to expand."

Dr. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe deputy director of the forecasting centre at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy told The Local that “the export economy is seeing a gentle improvement, especially due to the recovery in the euro area and the dip in the exchange rate vis a vis the US dollar.” 

For Germany's heavily export-oriented economy this is a key factor in improving business confidence, he said.

Boysen-Hogrefe also named low interest rates and the sustained fall in the price of oil as contributors to the more optimistic outlook.

But he warned against over-optimism, cautioning that “while the billed boom sounds good” it could lead to an “overheating” of the German economy and “threatens to bring a recession in its wake.”

The expert also expressed concern that the minimum wage and rises in state pensions enacted in the economic good times will become a burden when boom turns to bust.

Ifo calculates its headline index on the basis of companies' assessments of current business and the outlook for the next six months.

The sub-index measuring current business rose to 112.0 points from 111.3 points, while the outlook sub-index increased by 1.4 points to 103.9 points, the institute said.

Analysts said the Ifo reading confirms that the German economy is already shrugging off the geopolitical uncertainty that depressed sentiment last month.

"Companies are shaking off worries about Russia and Greece, which had been weighing on optimism in February," said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.

"Further improvements in Germany's momentum are ahead. The economic tailwinds of cheap oil and a weaker euro take time to feed through to companies' and households' purchasing and investment decisions," Schulz said.

The Ifo index is still a long way from reflecting a real "boom", "but the upswing is broad-based," the expert noted.

Natixis economist Johannes Gareis similarly believed that the Ifo data "add to the bright picture of Germany's economic outlook."

German business confidence "has clearly left behind its lull in mid-2014, strengthening the case for optimism about Germany's growth prospects," he said.

Postbank economist Heinrich Bayer said the rise in the Ifo index offered a "clear signal that the economy upturn will continue in the coming two quarters."

"Optimism has returned to the German economy," concurred ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski.

"Strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, combined with low energy prices and the weak euro exchange rate, have boosted confidence in the economy."

The European Central Bank's bond purchase programme was also a factor driving optimism, Brzeski said.

"The economy is like a sailboat which only needs to hoist the sail and lean back to relax. Strong tailwinds could bring the strongest economic performance since 2011," he said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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