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BUDGET

Hollande lines up clash between France and EU

French President Francois Hollande on Wednesday urged the European Union to ease its rules on budget discipline with speculation increasing that debt-ridden France will become the first country to have its budget rejected by Brussels.

Hollande lines up clash between France and EU
"Look Angela you need to give us a bit of time to get our house in order". Photo: AFP

Hollande called on Brussels to ease its rules on budget discipline to protect flagging growth in the troubled eurozone.

"We have to adjust budgetary policy in relation to the challenge of growth," Hollande said on his arrival for a brief informal summit with other EU leaders.

The French leader said the issue would be discussed at a full European Council later this month, setting the scene for a head-on clash with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel has made it clear she will not countenance any easing of the requirement for EU governments to bring budget deficits under three percent of GDP and to keep them there.

Last week, France announced that it would fail to meet that target until 2017 and ruled out any further spending cuts, effectively publicly flouting the agreed ground rules for the single currency on the grounds that further cutbacks would only slow the faltering economy further.

That message was hammered home here by Hollande. "If everyone imposes austerity, which is not the case of France, there will be an even greater slowdown of growth," the Socialist leader said.

The European Commission is currently considering whether to use new powers it acquired last year to force France to rewrite its controversial budget. 

If Brussels knocks back Paris's budget and demands major revisions, as several sources told AFP was likely, it would be a major blow for the bloc's second biggest economy and a founding member of the European Union.

It also complicates things for Pierre Moscovici, the Frenchman whose installation as the new European economics commissioner has been thrown into doubt by his own record as finance minister until March this year.

The European Commission – the powerful executive branch of the EU – was in 2013 granted the power to send back national budgets for revision under new rules adopted to prevent a repeat of the eurozone debt crisis.

The EU said on Monday it had not yet taken any decision, adding that France had until October 15 to submit its budget and then the Commission had a further two weeks to make up its mind.

"It is extremely premature to speculate on content of the opinion we will issue," said Simon O'Connor, spokesman for the Economic Affairs Commission.

In its defence, France would probably insist that it faces "exceptional circumstances", which would then allow it to send up a new offer that still lets it overshoot the EU targets, sources said.

That would not go down well, however, with smaller nations that have had to agree to punishing austerity measures in the past to bring their finances into line with EU limits.

On Friday, sources said it was "highly likely" Brussels would send France's plans back for changes, adding that it would "heighten tensions between France
and Germany."

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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