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ECONOMY

Volvo profits saved by Chinese devotion

The now Chinese-owned Volvo Car Group announced a return to profits on Wednesday - thanks to the Swedish brand's popularity in China.

Volvo profits saved by Chinese devotion
Volvo Cars chief executive Håkan Samuelsson. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT

Volvo Cars presented an upbeat half-yearly report that cited "solid" demand for the brand among Chinese buyers.

The Gothenburg-based manufacturer bucked dismal sales trends in the global auto industry with a 15-percent hike in turnover to 64.78 billion kronor ($9.39 billion).

Net profits was 535 million kronor in the first six months of the year compared to a 778 million kronor loss for the same period in 2013.

Sales in vehicle terms grew by 9.5 percent year on year to 229,013 units, compared to 209,117 for the same period in the previous year.

"This first half result is both solid and encouraging," chief executive Håkan Samuelsson said in a statement.

The group doubled its previous sales outlook for the year to 10 percent, partly due to strong demand from China where sales grew by 34.4 percent, largely offsetting a 10 percent fall in US sales.

"We are growing our presence in China and we expect to sell at least 80,000 cars there this year," said Samuelsson, just a week ahead of the formal launch of the XC90 SUV — Volvo's first fully new car since being bought by Zhejiang Geely Holding from Ford Motor Company in 2010.

Apart from banking in the growth of the Chinese car market where the group has three factories, it also said a "revival plan" was underway with new management in the US, where the Swedish brand has no manufacturing base.

In Europe, Volvo said the market showed "signs of recovery and growth", with particularly good results in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.

Nonetheless, the group's operating profit is expected to stagnate in 2014 "due in part to an expected negative impact from exchange rates and the continued investment program".

Volvo Cars was separated from the Volvo Group's truck, engine and construction machinery business in 1999 and employs 22,300 globally.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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