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CHINA

China woos Germany’s heirless ‘Mittelstand’

The small and mid-sized companies that form the backbone of the German economy are increasingly being snapped up by foreign - predominantly Chinese - investors as the families that run them find no suitable heirs to pass their businesses on to.

China woos Germany's heirless 'Mittelstand'
German engineering firm Putzmeister was purchased by Chinese investors in 2012. Photo: DPA

Two years ago, engineering firm Putzmeister passed into Chinese hands after the founding family was unable to find a successor.

The takeover by Chinese giant Sany for around half a billion euros was one of the biggest investments by China in Europe at the time. But it was just the tip of the iceberg.

"Technology firms, hidden champions with problems finding an heir, that's what Chinese investors are looking out for," said Peter Englisch of EY (formerly Ernst & Young).

"Every private equity fund in the world currently has its eyes fixed on this market," the expert said.

"German firms, and particularly family-run ones, are the ideal takeover targets for Chinese investors at the moment," said Stefan Heidbreder, head of the federation of family-owned businesses.

Around 75 percent of so-called SMEs — small and medium enterprises, or, to use the German term, "Mittelstand" — are in family hands. Specializing in high-tech industrial applications, the sector is known for its innovation and is the driving force behind German exports.

But the tradition of succession where the father hands over the business to his son or daughter is crumbling.

Detlef Keese, of the Institute for SME Research at Mannheim University, estimates that fewer and fewer companies are remaining in family hands: the proportion has fallen from 70-75 percent in the 1990s to around 50 percent at present.

The German association of chambers of commerce and industry, DIHK, sees it as a reflection of the ageing population. But it is also a social phenomenon,
it says.

"In a lot of cases, the children are reluctant to step in to their fathers' shoes, because they have seen what toll it has taken," said Arist von Schlippe, psychologist and lecturer in the management of family-run firms at the university of Witten.

"They have a different idea of life, they want a different balance," he said.

In addition, a lot of companies are in a phase "where it's not just entrepreneurial drive and spirit that is required, but also management competence, which the young people simply don't have, or which their fathers believe that they don't have," von Schlippe said.

The first wave of post-war entrepreneurs passed on the torch in the 1970s and now it is the grandchildren's turn, the expert said.

And in the case of those companies set up in eastern Germany after the fall of communism, it is the time for the first generational changeover.

In the absence of a successor, it is sometimes the non-family management which takes over by way of a management buyout, with the financial backing, say, of a private equity fund.

But the investment funds themselves sometimes act on their own. And, in other cases, the company is simply snapped up by a rival.

From this point of view, Chinese investors can often appear to be the more attractive option. They are reliant on the current workforce and frequently hold on to the existing management teams, said Heidbreder.

Another attraction is that Chinese investors are more willing to pay higher prices, said Jens-Peter Otto, who heads the Chinese-German business group at
PWC.

According to data compiled by EY, the volume of Chinese direct investment in Germany rose from €46 million to €68 million between 2012 and 2013.

German fork-lift truck manufacturer Kion, semi-conductors specialist Prema, car door latch maker Kiekert, and concrete pump maker Schwing are all now in Chinese hands.
 

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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