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DEBT

France’s public debt climbs above estimates

The French government racked up more debt in 2013 than it had initially estimated, which is yet more bad new for embattled President François Hollande. France's economic health is closely watched in the Euro zone.

France's public debt climbs above estimates
France's government overshot it public debt estimates. Photo: Joel Saget/AFP

France is way behind targets for cleaning up its budget, official data showed on Monday, deepening a dilemma for President Francois Hollande over cutting spending without splitting his left-wing backers.

The public deficit, or gap between spending and revenues, amounted to 4.3 percent of national output last year, the data revealed, raising the stakes as Hollande considers changing key ministers after an election debacle.

The deficit figure from the national statistics office marked a sharp reduction from 4.9 percent in 2012 but was clearly above the government's target of 4.1 percent.

This means that the government faces a huge task, in economic and political terms, in meeting its commitment to the European Union to reduce the deficit to less than 3.0 percent of gross domestic product in 2015.

Hollande, handicapped by weak economic growth and the failure of a promise to stop unemployment rising, suffered a huge setback on Sunday when his Socialist party did exceptionally badly in local elections, and the far-right National Front did well.

France has won extra time from the European Commission to correct its badly over-stretched public finances on condition it enacts big reforms.

France is the Euro zone's second-biggest economy, and its finances are closely watched by the EU, the European Central Bank, Germany — the zone's biggest economy — and financial markets where France borrows.

The government is making little progress in enacting radical reforms to cut spending and raise business competitiveness, as have several other EU countries.

France has a big trade deficit compared to a huge surplus by Germany, and there is now broad agreement that taxes, and notably charges on businesses, are too high.

Other official data on Monday showed that business profitability, already among the lowest in Europe, fell last year and crimped investment.

The central bank said this month that industrial activity was picking up and forecast growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter, after growth of 0.3 percent for the whole of 2013.

But in February the number of unemployed people rose by 0.9 percent to a record 3.34 million. 

The administration which Hollande oversees is in coalition with the Green party.

Some of the most left-wing elements among his backers want the government to back-peddle on a recent change of policy direction involving a "Responsibility Pact" to reduce social charges on businesses, paid for by spending cuts of 50 billion euros ($69 billion) over three years.

The leader of the Green senators, Jean-Vincent Place, called on Monday for "an end to the Responsibility Pact", which "will not be voted by the majority". The latest data from the INSEE statistics office showed that the public debt, or accumulated deficits over many years, amounted to 93.5 percent of GDP.

That compared with 90.6 percent the previous year, but the government had estimated it would be 93.4 percent.

INSEE also raised its estimates for 2012, putting the public deficit at 4.9 percent from 4.8 percent and the debt at 90.6 percent from 90.2 percent.

The deficit figure means that excluding any spending cuts tied to reducing business charges, the government would have to find 25.0 billion euros over two years just to reach the EU target.

Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici assured in a statement that "the correction of public finances, under way since 2012, is continuing in a gradually improving economic context." The improvement was "regular and significant", he said.

In 2013, public spending accounted for 57.1 percent of national output, compared with a government target of 56.9 percent. 

At Berenberg bank in London, economist Holger Schmieding commented "Hollande looks set to reshuffle his government soon" and that after upcoming European Parliament elections "he will likely outline some expenditure cuts to finance some job-friendly tax cuts for French businesses."

The changes were likely to be "modest", but the "risk of a financial crisis also looks small", he said. France would trail behind its neighbours "until the political elite bites the bullet of thorough reforms".

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COVID-19

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany’s spending in pandemic

The German Constitutional Court rejected challenges Tuesday to Berlin's participation in the European Union's coronavirus recovery fund, but expressed some reservations about the massive package.

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany's spending in pandemic

Germany last year ratified the €750-billion ($790-billion) fund, which offers loans and grants to EU countries hit hardest by the pandemic.

The court in Karlsruhe ruled on two challenges, one submitted by a former founder of the far-right AfD party, and the other by a businessman.

They argued the fund could ultimately lead to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, having to take on the debts of other EU member states on a permanent basis.

But the Constitutional Court judges ruled the EU measure does not violate Germany’s Basic Law, which forbids the government from sharing other countries’ debts.

READ ALSO: Germany plans return to debt-limit rules in 2023

The judgement noted the government had stressed that the plan was “intended to be a one-time instrument in reaction to an unprecedented crisis”.

It also noted that the German parliament retains “sufficient influence in the decision-making process as to how the funds provided will be used”.

The judges, who ruled six to one against the challenges, did however express some reservations.

They questioned whether paying out such a large amount over the planned period – until 2026 – could really be considered “an exceptional measure” to fight the pandemic.

At least 37 percent of the funds are aimed at achieving climate targets, the judges said, noting it was hard to see a link between combating global warming and the pandemic.

READ ALSO: Germany to fast-track disputed €200 billion energy fund

They also warned against any permanent mechanism that could lead to EU members taking on joint liability over the long term.

Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said the ruling had “raised serious doubts whether the joint issuance to finance the fund is in line with” EU treaties.

“The German court — once again — emphasised German limits for EU fiscal integration,” he said.

The court had already thrown out a legal challenge, in April 2021, that had initially stopped Berlin from ratifying the financial package.

Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, then chancellor Angela Merkel sketched out the fund in 2020, which eventually was agreed by the EU’s 27 members in December.

The first funds were disbursed in summer 2021, with the most given to Italy and Spain, both hit hard by the pandemic.

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