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CREDIT RATING

S&P positive on outlook for ‘stable’ Spain

Global rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded its outlook for Spain's debt on Friday, highlighting the prospects for export-led growth in the eurozone's fourth-largest economy.

S&P positive on outlook for 'stable' Spain
S&P kept Spain's long-term credit rating at "BBB minus", just a notch above junk bond status, but raised the outlook to "stable" from "negative". Photo: Scott Olson/ Getty Images North America/AFP

The New York-based agency kept Spain's long-term credit rating at "BBB minus", just a notch above junk bond status, but raised the outlook to "stable" from "negative".

Though only a minimal upgrade, the rating action reflected a dramatic change in fortunes in Spain from mid-2012 when it seemed to be tottering on the brink of an all-out sovereign debt bailout.

The decision means Spain can shake off the immediate threat of its long-term debt being downgraded to speculative status, the equivalent of a "junk bond".

A "junk bond" rating implies sharply higher borrowing costs, not least because many institutions such as pension funds are barred from making speculative investments.

"Today's rating action reflects our view that Spain's external position is improving as economic growth gradually resumes," Standard & Poor's said in a statement.

Spain confirmed this week that it had emerged from a two-year recession in the third quarter of 2013, posting feeble 0.1 percent growth.

The Treasury has enjoyed a sharp drop in borrowing costs too, as investors return in search of high returns.

Despite its emergence from recession, Spain's economy faces significant challenges including a 26-percent unemployment rate.

The country is still struggling with the aftermath of a decade-long property bubble that imploded in 2008, throwing millions of people out of work, racking up huge debts for the government, banks and people, and plunging the economy into a double-dip recession.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative government, which took power in December 2011, has enacted economic reforms and austerity policies so as to curb annual deficits and rein in the national debt.

Standard & Poor's said it upgraded the debt look because of its view of Spain's "diversified and prosperous" economy and the government's reform agenda.

But the agency said the Spanish outlook was constrained by high private and public debt, low economic growth prospects from 2013-2016 and "remaining inflexibilities" such as the job market, in which people with indefinite contracts enjoy much stronger protections than those in temporary employment.

The agency predicted Spain's economy would shrink by 1.2 percent this year in real terms before posting growth of 0.8 percent in 2014 and 1.2 percent in 2015 "chiefly on the back of robust exports".

"Strong headwinds persist, however," it warned.

"Domestic demand is weak and constrained by further declines in disposable income due to high unemployment, reduced wages, and budgetary consolidation," Standard & Poor's added.

In addition, investment was subdued as private companies battled to lower debt levels, it said.

Spain's government is forecasting a 1.3-percent economic contraction in 2013 and 0.7-percent growth in 2014, a pace considered by many analysts to be insufficient to lead to net job creation.

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CREDIT RATING

S&P downgrades French credit rating to AA

The French government reacted angrily on Thursday to a decision by Standard and Poor's agency to downgrade France's credit rating by one notch to "AA". The country's finance minister denounced S&P's "critical and inexact judgements."

S&P downgrades French credit rating to AA
The French government reacted angrily on Thursday to a decision by Standard and Poor's agency to downgrade France's credit rating by one notch to "AA". Photo: B64/Wikimedia

The Standard and Poor’s ratings agency on Friday downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch to “AA,” with outlook stable.

The agency said it was cutting the rating from the previous “AA+” because government reforms would not raise medium term prospects and because lower economic growth was constraining the government’s ability to consolidate public finances.

“We believe the French government’s reforms to taxation, as well as to product, services and labour markets, will not substantially raise France’s medium-term growth prospects and that ongoing high unemployment is weakening support for further significant fiscal and structural policy measures,” the agency said.

“Moreover, we see France’s fiscal flexibility as constrained by successive governments’ moves to increase already-high tax levels, and what we see as the government’s inability to significantly reduce total government spending,” it said.

S&P said it expected net general government debt to peak at 86 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 and unemployment to remain above 10 percent until 2016.

“Current unemployment levels are weakening support for further fiscal and microeconomic reforms, and are depressing longer term growth prospects,” it said.

The stable outlook means there is a less than a one-in-three chance that the agency would change France’s rating over the next two years.

French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici in a statement deplored “the critical and inexact judgements” made by the agency.

And Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said that “France’s ratings remains among the best in the world” and that the agency “does not take into account all the reforms” made by the government.

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