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BUDGET

France ‘on course’ to break public deficit limit

There was more bad news for France on the economic front this week, when the country's own budget watchdog warned that public sector deficit is set to break a limit set by the EU last month. The watchdog said economic growth was now imperative.

France 'on course' to break public deficit limit
French economy needs growth of risks breaking limits set by EU. Photo: Images of money

France's public sector budget deficit may burst through the revised limit agreed with the EU just last month if growth does not pick up, the government budget watchdog warned on Thursday.

Spending watchdog the Cour des Comptes said that if the French economy fails to grow by the 0.1 percent forecast by the government — as is now predicted by the European Commission and the IMF — the public deficit could be as high as 4.1 percent of gross domestic product, well above agreed limits.

In March, President Francois Hollande acknowledged that France would not achieve its initial target of reducing the deficit to the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent of output in 2013, saying the new target was 3.7 percent.

The European Commission accepted this last month, saying France should now cut the public deficit to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, then 3.6 percent in 2014 and 2.8 percent in 2015.

"Without a change to economic growth, the Cour identified risks to tax receipts which could represent, in an adverse scenario, up to €6 billion" said the head of the court, Didier Migaud.

French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said that "unfortunately, in the absence of growth" the Cour des Comptes was correct to warn of a rise in the deficit.

"There is no slippage on spending, that is very important," said Ayrault. "Effectively, the Cour des Comptes noted that revenues are behind due essentially to a lack of growth."

Weak growth and public finances in France are of acute concern to the European Commission and to Germany which is the main powerhouse in the eurozone.

Despite the shortfall, Migaud advised against adopting budget adjustments midway through the year given the magnitude of the changes in public finances already in the 2013 budget.

The figures are also watched closely on nervous financial markets.

This week has seen government officials and opposition lawmakers argue about the magnitude of the shortfall in tax collection and its implication for public finances.

A senior lawmaker said the government was in the process of discussing the targets for the structural deficit.

The European Commission and INSEE now forecasts the French economy will contract by 0.1 percent this year, while the IMF is pencilling in a drop of 0.2 percent.

Separately, INSEE said household confidence fell in June to a new record low as worries increased about joblessness.

INSEE's composite index for household confidence dropped by one point to 78 in June, dropping below the July 2008 level at the depths of the global financial crisis.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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