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ECONOMY

France to cut spending for first time since 1958

The continuing impact of the financial crisis in France became clear on Tuesday when the Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault confirmed that government spending would be cut next year for the first time since 1958.

France to cut spending for first time since 1958

French government spending will fall next year for the first time since 1958, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said Tuesday, as the country begins shifting the austerity effort away from tax hikes.

"Every year since 1958, since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, state spending has increased," Ayrault said.

He spoke as he sent his ministries spending caps that will result in a cut of about €1.5 billion ($2.0) in central government spending in 2014 from the 2013 level.

"This is the first time that we will propose to Parliament such a reduction. It is a structural effort," he added.

The cut comes out to about 0.4 percent of planned 2013 central government spending of about €395 billion . So far French efforts to cut its budget deficit have been heavily weighted
towards tax hikes, but the country has long been advised to begin structural reforms to bring down unsustainable spending.

Of the 1.5 billion euros in cuts, 750 million will made from central government support to local governments and 750 million will be from ministerial budgets.

Ayrault said that the cuts would not be across the board, and that some ministries would see their budgets increase, without specifying any details.

However he indicated that the government's priorities remained job creation, education, housing, law and order, plus investments.

Last month France won additional time from Brussels to bring its public deficit back within the European Union's ceiling of 3.0 percent of output.

The overall public deficit includes spending by the central and local governments plus the social security system.

This year France should cut the public deficit to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product, then 3.6 percent in 2014 and 2.8 percent in 2015.

This task is being complicated by the fact that France's economy is now widely forecast to remain in recession this year, and that according to EU forecasts the deficit will climb next year.

Opposition conservative lawmakers said that the recession this year is leading to lower tax revenues and calculate the deficit for the central government could come in some 20 billion euros more than planned.

Government officials acknowledged that tax receipts were coming in lower than had been forecast, but said the calculations did not take into account reduced spending.

Data from France's Insee statistical agency on Tuesday showed that the business climate in the manufacturing has continued to improve in June.

Insee's industrial economic climate index, based on survey of business managers, rose by one point from the previous month to 93 in June. The reading is still considerably below the long-term average of 100 points.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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