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BUDGET

IMF backs thrifty German budget policy

The International Monetary Fund's chief economist believes Germany's budgetary policy is "appropriate" while criticizing the fiscal habits of the United States.

IMF backs thrifty German budget policy
Photo: DPA

“I think the German budgetary policy generally speaking is appropriate, while the Americans are doing too much,” Olivier Blanchard told this week’s edition of Die Zeit according to a pre-released copy.

The US “should consolidate less at the current time but have a clear plan in order to do more in the future,” the IMF economist said in the interview published in German.

Germany, on the other hand, should stick to its announced course of financial consolidation “and avoid saving more than planned”, he added.

Germany’s public deficit is expected to be around 0.5 percent of output this year, making it one of very few eurozone countries to respect European Union rules stating that countries in the single currency area may not run a public deficit higher than three percent of GDP.

According to the EU statistics agency Eurostat, a strong majority of all EU members, 17 of 27, exceeded the 3.0 percent limit last year. But Blanchard said Germany would not be making savings this year.

“According to our calculations the state deficit, adjusted for cyclical effects, will slightly rise this year,” he told the German newspaper.

Asked whether countries should save “at any cost”, Blanchard said “I didn’t say that”, adding it was important to “leave the danger zone” which meant budgetary consolidation.

However, he said that was a burden in the short-term on economic growth.

“Therefore we must look closely at each country and decide what rate of consolidation is appropriate,” he added.

Berlin has come under pressure to back a less austere approach to the economic crisis that countries such as France say would promote growth.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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