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ECONOMY

Carmakers cruise past Europe’s crisis

German carmakers offered a rare ray of optimism at the International Geneva Motor Show this week, with their heavy footprints outside of Europe allowing them to almost shrug off the Continent's continued crisis.

Carmakers cruise past Europe's crisis
Photo: DPA

With many car companies complaining on the first day of the show about the impact of Europe’s economic woes, several of the German firms sounded all but upbeat as they described how their global presence was helping guide them through the difficult terrain.

The head of German carmaker BMW, Norbert Reithofer, voiced “cautious optimism” for his company’s performance this year.

Reithofer, whose company in addition to the BMW brand also sells Minis and Rolls-Royces, expects to see the global car market swell four percent to around 75 million vehicles this year.

“The growth in the car market will be pulled by the United States, China and the emerging markets,” he said, pointing out that he expects to see the overall car market grow two percent in the US to nearly 15 million units, and by 8.5 percent to more than 14 million units in China.

Daimler, which along with European leader Volkswagen raked in record net profits in 2012, also sounded almost optimistic at the show.

“We are still growing in a declining market,” Daimler chief Dieter Zetsche told reporters.

And Volkswagen saw its net profit soar 40 percent last year to €21.7 billion, pulling far ahead of Europe’s second-in-line PSA Peugeot Citroen.

German brand Opel, which belongs to US giant General Motors, had less reason to celebrate, with numbers from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association suggesting its sales fell 16 percent last year.

Still, brand-new chief executive Karl-Thomas Neumann said it had managed to grow its market-share in the first two months of the year.

“In this market environment, we are focusing on keeping our market share,” he said, referring to the European crisis. Daimler’s Zetsche meanwhile acknowledged that his company had in Europe in 2013 “seen a very slow start in January (and) it seems that February continues at the same level.”

He stressed though that the company expected to see improvements in the second half of the year.

“Of course, we are not immune to market developments (in Europe),” he said, but pointed out that “we are selling in the entire world”.

BMW too said its outlook for Europe was all but cheery, with an expected two-percent drop in overall sales there this year to some 12.3 million vehicles.

This year will remain “very volatile” and “Europe will become a bigger challenge,” Reithofer said.

But while he doesn’t expect the volatility of the European market to settle for the next five years, Reithofer stressed that BMW still had other markets to fall back on.

In the first two months of the year, the group’s global sales rose six percent thanks to its broad presence on other continents, he said.

AFP/mjl

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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