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ECONOMY

France mired in mild recession: central bank

The French central bank repeated on Thursday its estimate that France fell into a mild recession at the end of 2012, putting contraction of the economy at 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter after equivalent estimated shrinkage in the third quarter.

France mired in mild recession: central bank
Photo: Joel Saget/AFP

The latest estimate from the Bank of France differs from data from the national statistics office INSEE which has suggested that France, which has the second-biggest eurozone economy, just averted recession this year with marginal intermittent growth.

Together, the sets of data suggest that the country is bumping along on the edge of recession when it urgently needs to achieve steady, stronger growth to generate activity, reduce high unemployment and raise tax revenues to reduce the public deficit.

The Socialist government switched the emphasis of its economic policy a few months after coming to power in May, focusing on the need to raise the competitive position of French industry to boost exports and correct a big trade deficit.

The central bank stood by its view that the country fell into mild recession on the basis of its latest monthly report in December on the state of activity in the industrial and services sector.

The bank's overall assessment of how the economy fared in the fourth quarter was the same as those it issued in November and October.

The bank had already said it believes the economy shrank by 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three-month period.

The technical definition of recession is two quarters running of contracting output.

However, INSEE estimates that the economy grew by 0.1 percent in the three months from July to September, keeping France out of recession.

INSEE believes that the economy then contracted by 0.2 percent in the final quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, INSEE reported on Thursday that French industrial output had rallied by 0.5 percent in November from the level in October, when it contracted by a revised 0.6 percent on a monthly basis.

The statistics institute had estimated initially that industrial output had shrunk by 0.7 percent in October.

Analysts at BNP Paribas commented however that "this unexpected rise is fragile," and noted that industrial production was still down by almost 4.0 percent on an annualized basis

They nonetheless forecast that the French economy might have reached its trough at the end of last year, noting that "confidence indices in November and December point towards a timid improvement in the coming months."

Meanwhile, INSEE said that consumer prices had risen by 0.3 percent in December and by 1.2 percent, excluding the price of tobacco, on a 12-month basis.

The increase had been driven mainly by seasonal increases in the prices of services and manufactured products, data showed.

The latest figure means that inflation in France was below the average of 2.2 percent in the eurozone in December, on the basis of a first estimate by the European Union statistics office Eurostat.

BNP Paribas analysts noted that was "a positive point for consumers and French competitiveness."

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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