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ECONOMY

Westerwelle: Cyprus must reform for bailout

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said on Friday that Europe is "ready to help" Cyprus tackle its debt troubles - but only if the country commits to key structural reforms and an austerity budget.

Westerwelle: Cyprus must reform for bailout
Photo: DPA

Westerwelle told public broadcaster ARD that there are mechanisms in place to support Cyprus, but said the country must be “really serious” about reforms to receive that aid.

“On that front, certainly, many further steps are still needed,” he said.

The foreign minister’s comments come just hours after US ratings agency Standard & Poor’s slashed Cyprus’s credit rating by two notches, to CCC+.

In June, the country formally requested bailout funding from its eurozone partners, with Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly estimating that Nicosia would need about €17.5 billion to stay afloat.

Meanwhile, there are growing fears that the country will be unable to shoulder its debts even after adopting the necessary reforms. The International Monetary Fund is said to be pushing for a write-down of Cypriot debt holdings, according to a report published Thursday in the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The IMF wants this “haircut” in exchange for its share of bailout money for Cyprus, the paper wrote.

Shiarly has denied talk of a debt write-down, however – and ECB executive board member Jörg Asmussen, a senior German economist, also dampened speculation, saying it is still unclear how much money Cyprus will actually need.

“We won’t have the final numbers until mid-January,” Asmussen told ARD. He also warned that more measures to help Cyprus may be needed if the country’s debt burden proves to be unsustainable.

DAPD/DPA/The Local/arp

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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