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ECONOMY

‘No need to change constitution’ over pact

France's Constitutional Council ruled on Thursday that no change to the country's constitution was necessary to adopt the EU's fiscal pact, a key element in efforts to overcome the eurozone's debt crisis.

The decision is a boost for President Francois Hollande as it avoids a divisive battle within his Socialist party and with its left-wing allies over a constitutional amendment which would have likely delayed ratification for months and adding to the worries of already-anxious investors.

Following the vote Hollande "asked the government to rapidly prepare a law for the ratification" of the pact, his office said in a statement.

The fiscal pact sets strict limits on governments running deficits — the so-called golden rule — and is aimed at tackling the debt crisis that has
engulfed the eurozone and threatened the global economy.

Signed in March, the pact must be approved by 12 of 17 eurozone members, and France is hoping to follow Italy, Germany and others by ratifying the
accord in September, ahead of it taking effect at the start of next year.

The pact requires countries with high debt to keep their structural deficits below 0.5 percent of gross domestic product or face stiff penalties.

The Constitutional Council has previously required amendments to the constitution to take account of European treaties, but it ruled that France
had already made similar commitments to limit its budget deficit under the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties.

The pact urges countries to enshrine the deficit limits in their constitutions, but Holland prefers to use instead a so-called fundamental law which has constitutional force but only needs a simple majority to be adopted.

A constitutional amendment would require three-fifths approval by parliament or a referendum which would have likely delayed ratification for
months.

Former budget minister Valerie Pecresse lashed out at the Socialists for wasting a year as they had opposed adopting similar budget limits last year.

"Francois Holland and the Socialist Party made France and Europe lose a year in the building of a real economic union by the opposition to the golden
rule in the parliamentary debate last summer and repeated procrastination…" said the lawmaker from the conservative UMP party that held power until
earlier this year.

Many on the French left are against imposing EU-mandated austerity in the constitution and some, even among Hollande's Socialists, have said they would
vote against the move.

"There are very many of us who do not want to approve" an amendment, Socialist Senator Marie-Noelle Lienemann told France Info radio Thursday,
denouncing the move as the equivalent of "austerity for life".

Jean-Vincent Place, the head of the lawmakers' group for the Greens — key Socialist allies in parliament — also said he would vote against, calling the
pact an example of "extreme austerity and excessive stringency."

Hollande, whose Socialists and their allies hold a simple majority in parliament, should however be able to rely on the support of right-wing and
centrist lawmakers in order to ratify the pact.

Hollande defeated right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy for the presidency in May, vowing to shift French economic policy away from austerity and toward growth
with a tax-and-spend programme.

He promised during the campaign to renegotiate the fiscal pact but later accepted the addition of a so-called "growth pact" that will see the European
Union mobilising 120 billion euros ($148 billion) for projects aimed at boosting economic activity.

Hollande is struggling to stem rising joblessness in France amid warnings the country is likely to enter a recession in the third quarter.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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