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ECONOMY

France nears recession as growth outlook cut

The Bank of France cut its growth estimate for French growth on Friday, saying the eurozone's second biggest economy would now likely contract by 0.1 percent in the second quarter.

The central bank previously expected growth to be essentially flat in the three months from April through June. If the figures are confirmed it would be the first quarterly contraction since France pulled out of recession in 2009.

A second contraction in the third quarter would mean that France joined other EU countries like Britain, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain in recession.

In its latest outlook, the national statistics office INSEE forecast second quarter economic growth of 0.2 percent, but the figure was issued in March and several indicators released since then suggest it could be revised lower.

The French customs service reported meanwhile on Friday that the national trade deficit deteriorated in April to €5.8 billion ($7.3 billion).  

But the public deficit declined by €1.5 billion in April from the same month a year earlier, owing to increased tax revenues and a one-off boost from the sale of fourth-generation telephone frequencies, the budget ministry said.

France managed to reduce its public deficit to €59.9 billion, which “at this point in the year” was in line with a 2012 budget established by the former conservative government, a ministry statement said. 

On May 15, INSEE said the French economy had stalled in the first quarter of 2012.

In addition to recording zero growth in the first three months of the year, INSEE revised its fourth quarter 2011 growth figure down to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent, but maintained that output had expanded by 1.7 percent in 2011.

Meanwhile, French unemployment climbed higher in the first quarter of 2012, hitting the symbolic level of 10 percent, up by two percent from the previous three-month period INSEE said Thursday.

That put the French unemployment rate back to a level last seen in 1999.  

The European Commission has forecast overall growth this year of 0.5 percent in France, in line with budget predictions by the new Socialist French President Francois Hollande.

But the Commission expects growth next year of 1.3 percent, against a forecast of 1.7 percent under Hollande’s economic programme.  

In April, France’s trade deficit was €200 million bigger than in March, and reached a total of €5.8 billion, the customs service said Friday.

“Exports are generally well oriented, but suffered from hits in the aeronautic sector and a decline in sales of refined petroleum products,” the service said in a statement.

“Imports are underpinned by large purchases of energy products, intermediate and capital goods,” it added in reference to products often used to manufacture consumer goods and other finished items.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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