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Soaring oil prices swell Norway’s surplus

The Norwegian government pointed to the strength of the national economy on Tuesday in presenting a revised 2012 budget with a larger surplus, but it revised down growth prospects for the year.

"Economic activity in Norway has held up well in 2012, despite the global economic slowdown," Finance Minister Sigbjørn Johnsen said in a statement.

In its revised budget, Norway's left-leaning government therefore adjusted upwards its anticipated surplus for the year, including oil and gas revenues, by nearly 36 billion kroner ($6.1 billion) to a total of 381.3 billion kroner.

Not counting its oil and gas sector, the country's budget deficit for 2012 was now seen slipping to 112 billion kroner, from a previously anticipated 122.2 billion.

The finance ministry explained the adjustments by soaring oil prices, as well as higher-than-expected tax revenues and lower-than-expected expenditures.

To avoid an overheating of its economy, which in turn could push up the value of the krone to the detriment of Norwegian industries, the ministry prescribed drawing less than the approved amount from Norway's so-called oil fund.

The fund — one of the biggest sovereign wealth funds in the world — contains all state revenues from the country's oil and gas sector and was at the end of 2011 valued at 3,971 billion kroner.

Norway has set a 4-percent limit on the amount that can be tapped from the fund each year to balance its budget.

The finance ministry said on Tuesday that due to rising oil prices it in 2012 would need to draw just 116 billion kroner from the fund, which is 16 billion below the 4-percent path and 6 billion less than the approved amount last year.

Not counting the oil and gas sector, Norway's economy is now expected to grow 2.7 percent this year, down from the estimate in the autumn budget of 3.1 percent.

"Next year a further pick-up is expected to 3.0 percent," the finance ministry said, adding that Norway's unemployment was expected to remain low, at 3.25 percent this year.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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