SHARE
COPY LINK

INTEREST RATE

No change for Sweden interest rate: Riksbank

Sweden's central bank is holding the country's benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5 percent, the Riksbank announced on Wednesday, saying the Swedish economy was showing some "positive signs".

No change for Sweden interest rate: Riksbank

“There are now signs that prospects have brightened and that exports and domestic demand in the Swedish economy are increasing again,” the bank said in a statement.

“The sentiment among households and companies is more positive and exports of goods have recently increased.”

In addition, the global economy is “growing at a relatively good pace” and the US economy is also showing signs of improvement.

“However, the situation on the financial markets in Europe is fragile,” the bank said, adding that “much work needs to be done” to help fix the fiscal woes of many debt-laden eurozone countries.

Thus, while the bank doesn’t see the need to further cut interest rates, it nevertheless lowered its forecast for 2012 Swedish GDP growth to 0.4 percent, down from 0.7 percent, and in line with forecasts unveiled in the government’s spring budget released earlier this week.

The Riksbank expects the Swedish economy to pick up slightly in 2013 and 2014, forecasting GDP growth rates of 1.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.

Unemployment, however, is expected to rise slightly in 2012 to 7.7 percent and remain at that level through 2013 before dipping somewhat in 2014 to 6.9 percent.

Inflationary pressures are also expected to remain low for the remainder of 2012 before rising to 1.9 percent in 2013, nearly in line with the Riksbank’s 2 percent target.

While the Riskbank also announced the repo rate path remained unchanged, it held out the possibility for further rate cuts in the future, depending on developments in the global economy.

“There is considerable uncertainty about economic developments abroad,” the bank cautioned.

“The situation in the euro area is still problematic, and the public debt problems could worsen and have further negative effects on the Swedish economy.”

The Local/dl

twitter.com/thelocalsweden

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.

ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

SHOW COMMENTS