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REAL ESTATE

Investment firm ‘buys 22,000 German flats’

A notoriously aggressive American investment company, attracted to the German market by rising prices, is spending nearly €1 billion on more than 22,000 flats across Germany, the Financial Times Deutschland reported Tuesday.

Investment firm 'buys 22,000 German flats'
Photo: DPA

Cerberus, together with the real estate management company, Corpus Sireo, is reportedly paying as much as €900 million to get the 22,000 flats from Speymill, a bankrupt UK firm, the newspaper said. Germany’s federal cartel office has already approved the deal.

The huge deal is a sign of the German real estate market’s renewed attractiveness for foreign investors, following several years in which real estate money went elsewhere, the FTD said.

Whitehall Blackstone, a Goldman-Sachs fund and Morgan Stanley were also reportedly interested in Speymill’s property portfolio.

Cerberus is the Greek mythology name of the dog who watched over the entrance to hell, noted Der Spiegel, and suggested it was a deliberate choice as the firm has a reputation for being particularly aggressive.

In 2004 Cerberus, together with a Goldman Sachs subsidiary, bought GSW, a housing management owned by the state of Berlin that had more than 60,000 flats in its portfolio. Last year the investors went public with part of the company and sold the rest, removing them from the public housing market.

Germany’s property market became less attractive to investors after credit dried up in 2007, but it is now much easier to get financing – either to buy apartments after they are renovated or as a package, as Cerberus has done.

The Speymill holdings were considered a tough sell because the flats are spread out all over Germany, Kai Klose, a real estate analyst with the Berenberg Bank told the FTD. He calculated, based on market rates, that Cerberus would pay as much as €900 million for the deal.

The federal government also plans to capitalize on the improved market conditions, the FTD said, with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble planning a second attempt at selling the government-owned TLG company. It succeeded the Treuhand company that administered state-owned property from the former East Germany.

Schäuble tried to unload a package of offices, industrial areas and flats in Berlin and eastern Germany in 2008 but couldn’t find a buyer. The minister now sees a better chance for a sale, since prices are on the rise, the paper wrote.

TLG’s offerings, which include 11,500 flats, are valued at around €1.7 billion. Schäuble wants to insert language in the sales documents that would prevent luxury renovations of the flats, but that’s not enough for Left party parliamentary leader Gregor Gysi, who is worried that a sale would make tenants “purely investment objects.”

Those interested need to hurry up. Potential buyers have until this coming Monday to make their interest known, the FTD said.

The Local/mw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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