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ECONOMY

Italian PM: Germany to blame for EU debt

The Italian Prime Minister has blamed Germany for Europe's debt woes which, he told reporters on Wednesday, lie in irresponsible parenting from stronger member countries during the eurozone’s infancy.

Italian PM: Germany to blame for EU debt
Photo: DPA

On a visit to Tokyo, President Mario Monti announced that because the eurozone’s two largest players –Germany and France – had not abided by fiscal rules, they had set a bad example for the rest of the continent.

“The story goes back to 2003 (and) the still almost infant life of the euro, when Germany and France that were too flexible concerning public deficits and debts,” Monti said.

“Of course if the father and mother of the eurozone are violating the rules, you could not expect (countries such as) Greece to be compliant,” he added.

The technocrat, who replaced billionaire media magnate Silvio Berlusconi in November as head of the EU’s third largest economy, said that flouting rules that allowed for an annual budget deficit of no more than three percent of GDP was the issue.

He said despite recommendations from a meeting of ministers from European Union governments, France and Germany had escaped without punishment for going beyond the deficit limit.

The eurozone is now under pressure to increase its debt rescue fund, as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced on Tuesday that a financial safety net of at least €1.0 trillion was needed.

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting on Friday and Saturday in Copenhagen to decide whether to increase the EU safety net or not.

The OECD said the refinancing needs of vulnerable eurozone nations could top €1.0 trillion over the coming two years, on top of cash needed to recapitalise banks.

Italy alone needs some €750 billion to finance its debt, while Spain requires around €370 billion over the next three years.

AFP/jcw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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