France and Spain successfully raised funds at lower rates on the markets despite a raft of eurozone credit downgrades, while Greece got the prospect of more rescue loans from the IMF.

 

"/> France and Spain successfully raised funds at lower rates on the markets despite a raft of eurozone credit downgrades, while Greece got the prospect of more rescue loans from the IMF.

 

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ECONOMY

France shrugs off downgrade with successful bond sale

France and Spain successfully raised funds at lower rates on the markets despite a raft of eurozone credit downgrades, while Greece got the prospect of more rescue loans from the IMF.

 

France shrugs off downgrade with successful bond sale
Images of Money

In their first bond auctions since Standard & Poor’s downgraded their credit ratings last week, both Paris and Madrid demonstrated they can still borrow at affordable rates.

Despite S&P having dropped Spain’s rating two notches from AA- to A, investors clamoured to buy its bonds, with bids exceeding €15.3 billion ($20 billion) for the the original 3.5-4.5 billion originally planned to be sold.

Spain took advantage of the competitive rates and raised a combined total €6.609 billion in the auction.

The average 10-year bond rate plunged to 5.403 percent from 6.975 percent at a comparable auction last November 17th, Bank of Spain figures showed.

It was the sixth consecutive successful bond auction for Spain, giving the new right-leaning government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy some breathing room as it seeks to squeeze a stubborn public finance deficit.

Meanwhile France successfully raised €9.46 billion in a sale closely watched as a test of appetite for its debt after Standard & Poor’s stripped the country of its top AAA rating.

The average yield on benchmark 10-year bonds dropped to 1.07 percent from 2.32 percent in the last comparable sale on November 17th, with bids over three times the amount offered.

The rate of return on short-term bonds also dropped considerably, by about 0.5 to 1 percent points.

“Strong and healthy demand (for French and Spanish debt) demonstrated how undisturbed the markets were by the recent S&P downgrade that deprived France of its triple A rating,” Gekko Global Markets trader Anita Paluch told AFP.

“It seems there is little concern when it comes to the perception of risk as the cost of borrowing for both nations have fallen. It proves the liquidity is abound and that Spain’s efforts of easing the pressure on its finances is bearing its fruits and was well received in the markets too.”

The S&P downgrades could theoretically expose them to higher interest rates on their long-term bonds, although markets appear to have already largely factored them in.

Moreover, eurozone banks are flush with nearly half a trillion euros in low-cost funds from the European Central Bank, with sovereign bonds offering a potential easy return.

Meanwhile, Greece said Thursday the International Monetary Fund was ready to open talks on new rescue funds as Athens was set for further talks with private creditors on a voluntary write-down of its debt needed to save it from a default.

“After a waiting period of several weeks, the green light has been given for the country to submit to the IMF a request to begin procedures for the new programme,” Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told parliament.

Venizelos and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos were due to resume talks at 1700 GMT with Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and lead negotiator for the banks.

The negotiations, aimed at cutting Greece’s staggering total debt of more than €350 billion by just under a third, stumbled last Friday over the terms of new bonds that would replace some of the debt to be written off.

The eurozone has insisted private creditors take losses of at least 50 percent on their holdings of Greek bonds to lead to a reduction of around €100 billion in the country’s debt.

Greece needs the debt reduction deal and the €130 billion in additional funds the eurozone has offered before major bond repayments are due in March or it could face a default.

Greek officials have said they see a deal as possible by the end of the week.

Japan said Thursday that it was ready to help out after the IMF called for $500 billion in new funds as the European debt crisis threatens the global economy helped.

However the United States has resisted calls for a larger IMF stand-by fund, and its success will hinge on the attitude of emerging economies like China, Brazil and India.

European states have already committed to providing around $200 billion.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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