France is to issue long-term bonds on Thursday in the first test of its market credibility in the wake of Standard & Poor's decision to strip the country of its cherished triple-A rating.

"/> France is to issue long-term bonds on Thursday in the first test of its market credibility in the wake of Standard & Poor's decision to strip the country of its cherished triple-A rating.

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ECONOMY

France facing key bond test after downgrade

France is to issue long-term bonds on Thursday in the first test of its market credibility in the wake of Standard & Poor's decision to strip the country of its cherished triple-A rating.

France facing key bond test after downgrade
Finance minister François Baroin / screenshot

The sale, an attempt to raise between €7.5 billion and €9.5 billion (between $9.5 billion and $12 billion), will be watched keenly to see whether France will pay higher yields or whether the markets will shrug off the downgrade as they did last year when S&P downgraded the United States.

Finance Minister François Baroin voiced confidence ahead of the issue, saying France remained a no-risk bet for investors.

“An investment is rarely risk free, which is why its often profitable. But a risk-free investment does exist, that’s an investment in the sovereign wealth of our country,” he said on Monday.

“France is a great country with a solid … diversified economy, a skilled workforce, a highly resistant banking system and a high savings level,” Baroin said.

“So we can have confidence,” he said, adding that the S&P downgrade needed to be kept in perspective. “This is one message among others.”

New York-based S&P cut the credit rating of nine debt-laden European countries on Friday, including stripping France of its top-notch AAA rating.

Though long expected, the downgrade highlighted increasing concerns over French public finances.

If President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government finds itself saddled with high yields on Thursday, it will call into question the credibility of his deficit reduction plan and plunge the eurozone into further turmoil.

An unsuccessful auction would also likely to hit Sarkozy’s re-election hopes with only three months to go before a presidential vote.

Facing a tough challenge from Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, Sarkozy is desperate to shore up his economic credentials.

France successfully sold 8.59 billion euros in short-term bonds on Monday, paying a lower rate of interest than at a previous similar auction despite the loss of its triple-A.

But analysts said Thursday’s auction will be the real test.

“The longer-term debt auction on Thursday is much more of a challenge,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading site Forex.com.

“Last week we saw good demand for short-term Italian debt, but a lukewarm reception to longer-dated securities issued by Rome. If that happens at the French auction on Thursday then we could see a sharp decline in euro-based assets.”

But she added: “There isn’t much of a relationship between a sovereign rating downgrade and a deterioration in credit market conditions. When the US was downgraded in August 2011, 10-year treasury yields fell to their lowest-ever level six weeks later.”

In its last long-term bond issue on January 5th, France raised just shy of €8 billion. Analysts described demand in that auction as “solid” but France was forced to pay slightly higher interest rates.

The rate on France’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to 3.29 percent in that auction, up from 3.18 percent during the last long-term bond issue on December 1st.

Last month, France said it will need to raise €178 billion in medium- and long-term bonds in 2012, slightly less than last year, as the state will have to meet a budget deficit of €78.7 billion and repay €97.9 billion in debt.

Struggling to get its public finances under control, the French government has imposed two deficit-cutting packages aimed at saving a total of €72 billion since August.

It has said it needs to save €100 billion to balance its budget by 2016 but Sarkozy has vowed no new austerity measures ahead of the election in April.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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