France braced on Sunday for the fallout from its credit rating downgrade as President Nicolas Sarkozy appealed for calm and vowed to carry out more reforms to lead the country out of crisis.

"/> France braced on Sunday for the fallout from its credit rating downgrade as President Nicolas Sarkozy appealed for calm and vowed to carry out more reforms to lead the country out of crisis.

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ECONOMY

France braces for downgrade fall-out as Sarkozy vows reform

France braced on Sunday for the fallout from its credit rating downgrade as President Nicolas Sarkozy appealed for calm and vowed to carry out more reforms to lead the country out of crisis.

France braces for downgrade fall-out as Sarkozy vows reform
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Global markets were expected to face pressure when they reopen on Monday after Standard & Poor’s stripped France and Austria of their top triple-A ratings and downgraded a swathe of debt-laden EU members.

Friday’s downgrades had been mostly expected, but analysts said the move showed the eurozone debt crisis was worsening.

The downgrade means France will now have to pay more to borrow on international money markets, which could raise the cost of borrowing for businesses and households and dampen already faltering economic growth.

Sarkozy, in his first public reaction to the downgrade, made an appeal on Sunday for calm and said he would make more reforms to get France back on track.

“The crisis can be overcome provided that we have the collective will and the courage to reform our country,” he said at a memorial service for a former prime minister in the central town of Amboise.

“We must resist, we must fight, we must show courage, we must remain calm,” said the right-wing leader, whose reelection hopes in a presidential vote three months from now took a severe blow with the downgrade.

Sarkozy, who has promised there will be no further austerity packages this year, said he would make an address to the nation at the end of the month to tell the French about “the important decisions that need to be made without delay”.

He was due on Wednesday to host a “social summit” with unions and employers to try to make France’s job market more flexible and halt rising unemployment, which is nearing the three-million mark.

His government has promised to cut payroll charges on employers and workers to try to make French firms more competitive, and to recoup the revenue mainly by raising value added tax.

Sarkozy has also vowed to quickly impose a new tax on financial transactions, a move which has irked his European partners.

The president made no mention in his speech in Amboise of Friday’s downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, which cut France’s top triple-A credit rating, which it has held since 1975, by one notch to AA+.

His main opponent in the presidential race, the Socialist Francois Hollande, said Saturday that Sarkozy had staked his reputation on keeping the top credit rating but now, he said, it was clear that he had failed miserably.

Analysts said the downgrade of France has widened a gulf between Europe’s north and south, leaving Paris politically weaker and Berlin stronger amid tough negotiations to resolve the eurozone crisis.

Sarkozy — who hosted crisis talks with his top economics ministers at the Elysee on Friday — reportedly told allies last month: “If we lose the triple-A, I’m dead.”

He had staked his re-election bid on convincing voters that he was the only candidate with the stature and experience to save France from economic meltdown.

Sarkozy justified pushing through two austerity packages as necessary to defend France’s triple-A rating.

An IFOP poll on Thursday showed that in the first round of the election in April, Hollande would take 27 percent of the vote, followed by Sarkozy at 23.5 percent and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen at 21.5 percent.

Friday’s downgrade left a sizeable hole in Sarkozy’s reelection campaign.

“It is the end of the myth of the protecting president,” said Le Pen.

The downgrade added to already bleak economic figures for France.

INSEE, the national statistics office, says it expects France to fall into a brief recession, with the economy contracting 0.2 percent in the three months to December and another 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

S&P said the downgrade of France “reflects our opinion of the impact of deepening political, financial, and monetary problems within the eurozone”.


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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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