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CURRENCY

Swedes’ disdain for the euro hits new heights

Non-euro countries Sweden and Denmark are fonder than ever of their own currencies, the krona and the krone, as the crisis plaguing the eurozone also hurts their economies.

Swedes' disdain for the euro hits new heights

Both members of the European Union, the two Scandinavian countries have refused to adopt the single currency.

For Sweden, the choice appears to have been the right one for now: it posted economic growth of 4.6 percent in the third quarter, compared to just 0.2 percent in the eurozone.

Its trade surplus soared by 41.8 percent in October from the same month a year earlier, while industrial production rose by 4.7 percent during the same period.

But Sweden’s export-heavy economy has slowed dramatically in recent weeks and central bank forecasts show growth shrinking to just 1.3 percent in 2012.

“There has been a fall in orders to Swedish export companies, and exports will be much weaker next year,” the bank said on December 20, predicting that households and businesses would postpone spending and investments.

Lower demand is also expected to “affect the labour market and unemployment will increase somewhat in the year ahead,” the central bank said. In November, the country’s jobless rate stood at 6.7 percent.

Sweden is considered to have among Europe’s strongest public finances, but it “will not be unaffected by a general European crisis and it is in our interest to be part of a European solution,” Finance Minister Anders Borg told AFP recently, insisting the country needs a seat at the table where a solution to the turmoil is hammered out.

Denmark, meanwhile, has been suffering from the effects of the crisis for several quarters and is now on the verge of recession.

In the third quarter, the Danish economy shrank by 0.8 percent, and economists expect it to shrink again in the fourth quarter, technically putting Denmark in recession.

Due to the weak outlook, the government has increased its public deficit forecast for 2012 to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product, or 100.7 billion kroner ($17.7 billion) — up from the 96 billion previously anticipated.

The widening of the debt was attributed to an expected decrease in tax revenue and increased spending on unemployment and social benefits, Finance Minister Bjarne Corydon said.

Given the state of play in Europe, Swedes and Danes have expressed robust opposition to the euro.

Recent polls suggest 87.6 percent of Swedes and 71 percent of Danes want to hold onto their own currencies.

“Swedish confidence in the euro has never been as low,” polling institute Skop said, noting that “support for the euro has been in a downward trend the past two years.”

“The European debt crisis has had an impact on Danish public opinion about the euro,” Danske Bank chief economist Steen Bocian said, recalling that in September 60 percent of Danes were opposed to adopting the euro.

Sweden rejected the euro in a 2003 referendum. Denmark also voted against the adoption of the single currency, but unlike Sweden it negotiated an opt-out on the euro with Brussels.

The Danish krone is linked to the euro through a fixed exchange rate policy that allows the krone to fluctuate within a 2.25-percent range, and Denmark’s central bank ensures that the gap between its interest rates and those of the eurozone is never too wide.

“The system works very well,” Bocian said, even if “it’s a strange construction” that is not meant to be a long-term arrangement.

“It could be advantageous right now” to not be a member of the eurozone, “but at the beginning of the crisis, in 2008, it was costly (for Denmark) to be outside,” he said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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