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ECONOMY

Europe in ‘existential crisis’: French foreign minister

France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said on Wednesday that the financial crisis ravaging Europe's debt-ridden economies had called the European Union's very survival into question.

Europe in 'existential crisis': French foreign minister

 “It’s an existential crisis for Europe,” Juppé said, in an interview with the news weekly L’Express that raised the stark prospect of a return to violent conflict on the troubled continent.

“This could call into question all that we have created, not only in the 20 years since the Maastricht Treaty, but since the foundation of the European community,” he warned.

Juppé said the struggles of the 17-nation eurozone’s member states to fund their sovereign debt could bring down the single currency, and that this would be “the explosion of the European Union itself.”

“In that eventuality, everything becomes possible, even the worst. We have flattered ourselves for decades that we have eradicated the danger of conflict inside our continent, but let’s not be too sure,” he said.

Juppé said the threat of a return to violent nationalism made it all the more necessary to protect the euro and the European project, adding “we’ve gone too far to not go further.”

European leaders are to hold a summit on December 8th and 9th to try to find a way out of the crisis, which has seen eurozone member states facing soaring borrowing costs amid fears their debts are unmanageable.

Earlier in the day, the governor of the Bank of France said Europe is facing a “true” financial crisis with global implications. However, he added that confidence in the euro as a single currency remains strong.

“We are now looking at a true financial crisis — that is broad-based disruption in financial markets,” Christian Noyer told a forum in Singapore. “We are facing a financial crisis, not a monetary one.”

Noyer, a member of the European Central Bank governing council, said that while most observers trace the turmoil to “fiscal imbalances in peripheral economies,” they may have been only the trigger.

Noyer insisted that the euro was not under threat.

“Confidence in the currency remains as strong as ever,” he said, adding that exchange rates are high by historical standards and that gross capital inflows into the eurozone remain unaffected by the turmoil.

Noyer acknowledged however that the situation in Europe and the world “has significantly worsened over the past few weeks” and called for a stabilisation of bond markets used by debt-strapped eurozone countries to raise funds. 

“Market stress has intensified. Bond markets in the euro area are not functioning normally… It is essential to stabilise European bond markets,” he said.

In other economic news, French domestic demand, the key motor of the country’s consumption-led economy, was stable in October after falling 0.2 percent in September, the state statistics agency INSEE said on Wednesday.

Compared to October last year, demand was down 0.9 percent, reflecting France’s high and rising unemployment rate and President Nicolas Sarkozy’s austerity programme, designed to rein in a massive public deficit.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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