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BUDGET

Germany cuts deficit faster than expected

Germany, Europe's powerhouse economy, will balance its public finances sooner than expected, slashing this year's projected budget deficit to 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent, the Finance Ministry announced Monday.

Germany cuts deficit faster than expected

As eurozone partners work on ever tighter austerity plans to balance their books, Germany leads the pack in the strength of its finances – it had a 2010 deficit of 3.3 percent, just above the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent despite having spent heavily on stimulus programmes to offset the worst recession since 1945.

“The positive development this year will continue until 2015, which will allow us to balance the accounts in 2014,” the ministry said in a monthly report published on its website.

Germany previously aimed to balance its finances by 2016 under a law requiring the government to ensure that it does not overspend.

The public deficit – the shortfall between revenues and spending – includes regional state budgets along with those of municipalities and the national social security system.

Under the terms of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, governments are not supposed to exceed a public deficit of 3.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product and must work towards a balance or even surplus in times of economic growth.

Total accumulated debt, meanwhile, “will fall between now and the end of the year to 80 percent of GDP and will thus be about three percentage points lower than in the previous year,” the ministry’s report said.

In 2015, Germany forecasts public debt equivalent to 71 percent of GDP, down from 2010’s 83.2 percent – still well above the EU limit of 60 percent but positive compared with, for example, Italy’s 120 percent.

Germany, which underwrites a large share of the eurozone rescue packages, is getting its own finances in order on the back of strong economic activity that has helped cut unemployment.

The narrowing public deficit might give the conservative-liberal government coalition a chance to implement tax cuts in time for elections in 2013.

That could help boost domestic consumption which appears threatened by constant discussion of bailout packages for partner countries on the eurozone’s southern rim.

“Headlines urging readers to ‘save your money’ in parts of the German weekend press illustrate the confidence shock,” Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said.

“Even people with comfortable real incomes may raise their savings rate and curtail spending for a while,” he warned.

Meanwhile Greece struggles to avoid a disastrous sovereign default, Italy is trying not be become the next country targeted by so-called sovereign “bond vigilantes” and Britain, France and Ireland are trying to tackle huge deficits.

In the United States, efforts to harness unprecedented levels of public debt are hobbled by partisan interests in Congress.

“We have a generalised problem. We have too high public sector debt and too high deficits everywhere,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told Deutschlandfunk radio on Monday.

In July, the news magazine Der Spiegel said that Berlin deserved the title “best in class” but efforts to cut the deficit further will run up against pressure from contributions Germany will have to make to various eurozone rescue funds.

Germany will be the biggest creditor to the planned European Stability Mechanism (ESM), with an estimated payment of €4.3 billion ($6.2 billion) per year.

The ESM is slated to replace the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in 2013.

Schäuble acknowledged that voices within Germany’s ruling coalition were critical about the terms of the latest EU rescue plan announced on July 21, reflecting unease among many Germans about the eurozone debt crisis.

“People are anxious and worried,” he said.

But while the economy would certainly slow down along with others worldwide, there were still indications that Germany would post growth of around 3.0 percent this year, the finance minister said.

AFP/emh

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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