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ECONOMY

Finance industry blasts proposed tax

Financial sector players wasted no time on Wednesday in slamming a mooted financial transactions tax, saying it would push business to rival global centres and be hard to enforce.

Finance industry blasts proposed tax
Photo: DPA

Deutsche Börse, which operates the Frankfurt stock exchange, said the tax, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy endorsed Tuesday, would “be a gift to non-regulated financial markets and products.”

Shares in the market operator itself were by far the biggest losers in afternoon Frankfurt trading, showing a loss of around 5.6 percent.

The federation of German mutual banks (BVR) added meanwhile that “it is to be feared that speculative transactions as well as the income sought from the financial transaction tax would migrate to other financial centres.”

In addition, such a tax “must not be allowed to have a negative impact on normal hedging activities on foreign exchange markets which are needed by companies in the real economy,” the BVR said.

Germany’s main banking federation BdB called the tax proposal a distraction from the causes of the current financial crisis, and several observers said the proposal appeared aimed at domestic audiences in Germany and France.

Deutsche Börse stressed doubts about the regulatory and fiscal impact of a broad-based tax scheme, and warned that it would be difficult to track all transactions.

Christian Muschick, an analyst at Silvia Quandt agreed, saying: “This project is not really new and has in our view only low probability of emergence as it would be very easy to be loop-holed given the global structure of the financial industry.”

Frederic Donnedieu de Vabres, head of the tax advisor firm Taxand, said: “This type of knee-jerk blanket tax is simply too complicated to implement and would require a fundamental overhaul in country-specific tax policy.

“In the current global economy where there is a very real need to focus on recovery, an overhaul of global tax harmonisation appears still to be light years away,” he added.

Claire Demesmay, at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) said that financial taxes are something typically well received by domestic populations.

And Berenberg Bank senior economist Christian Schulz noted that both Merkel and Sarkozy “are under pressure domestically, which may explain” why the tax was proposed once again.

He noted further that “chances for implementation of the tax are low.”

To avoid speculators taking advantage of global differences in financial

market regulation, “a global forum such as the G20 would be better placed to

agree such a tax, however that it is even more unlikely,” Schulz said.

AFP/mdm

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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