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ECONOMY

Zero growth adds to France debt pressure

France came under fresh pressure Friday to convince turbulent markets it can deliver on debt targets and keep its prized triple-A credit rating after data showed economic growth had skidded to a halt.

The bleak news came after a dramatic week that saw French banks pummelled in the markets as President Nicolas Sarkozy cut short a holiday to order deeper cuts and call a eurozone crisis summit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The government insisted that French economic fundamentals remained “solid” and that the country was still on course to reach its official target of 2.0 percent growth for the year.

Sarkozy’s promises to prune France’s public deficit – the shortfall between government spending and revenue – are based on the 2.0 percent forecast but the latest data support analysts’ forecasts that the goal is too optimistic.

The zero growth in the second quarter of 2011 came after a robust 0.9 percent in the first, the statistics agency INSEE said, noting that the main cause was a drop in household consumption.

The gloomy figures complicate Sarkozy’s bid to slash France’s deficit from 7.1 percent of gross domestic product last year to 5.7 percent this year, 4.6 percent in 2012 and 3.0 percent, the EU ceiling, by 2013.

“With the economy stagnating and (presidential) elections coming up next spring, it will be extremely difficult to implement the aggressive austerity measures that are needed to convince markets that the government finances are on a stable footing,” said Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics.

The zero growth data “may add to investors fears of a possible downgrade of

French sovereign debt,” she said.

After the European Central Bank stepped in this week to buy government bonds of Italy and Spain, lowering their borrowing costs, the market turned its fire on France as rumours swirled about the solidity of its triple-A credit rating.

French ministers have battled all week to head off speculation that France will be the next country to lose its top credit status after Standard and Poor’s stripped the United States of the prized rating a week ago.

The three leading rating agencies all said they had no plans to downgrade France but speculation intensified as the week progressed.

If France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, lost its AAA rating the effect would stretch far beyond its borders.

France provides the second-largest contribution, after Germany, to the eurozone’s temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, which enjoys an AAA rating to borrow at low rates and lend to states under bailout programmes.

Markets are wondering whether France and Germany can continue to underwrite the debts of troubled eurozone countries without losing their own top credit ratings and thus falling victim to the crisis themselves.

The crisis started in Greece, which had to be bailed out along with Ireland and Portugal, and is now fuelled by fears that Spain or Italy might default on their debt and possibly spark a break-up of the 17-nation currency zone.

Shares in France’s biggest banks were battered this week on fears about their exposure to Greek debt.

The rollercoaster ride on global stock markets continued Friday as nervous investors but a short-selling ban in key European markets appeared at least to dampen volatility, allowing some gains.

France, Belgium, Spain and Italy, all under intense pressure from the financial markets, on Friday slapped a ban on the speculative practice of short-selling bank stocks to combat “false rumours” that have destabilised them.

The move echoes steps taken at the height of the global financial crisis sparked by the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dealers said that whatever was done on the regulatory side, there was little the authorities could do about the underlying poor economic fundamentals which the debt crisis only makes worse.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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