President Nicolas Sarkozy promised new measures Wednesday to slash France's public deficit amid fears that France could be the next country after the United States to suffer a top credit-rating downgrade.

"/> President Nicolas Sarkozy promised new measures Wednesday to slash France's public deficit amid fears that France could be the next country after the United States to suffer a top credit-rating downgrade.

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ECONOMY

France vows deficit action over AAA threat

President Nicolas Sarkozy promised new measures Wednesday to slash France's public deficit amid fears that France could be the next country after the United States to suffer a top credit-rating downgrade.

The right-wing president broke off his vacation at the Riviera home of his pregnant pop star wife Carla Bruni to hold an emergency government meeting in Paris on the debt crisis rattling global markets.

“The head of state reiterated that the commitments to reduce the public deficit are inviolable and will be adhered to no matter how the economic situation evolves,” his office said after the meeting.

Sarkozy asked his finance and budget ministers to come up with new ideas for sticking to France’s deficit-reduction promises and these measures will be decided on on August 24, the president’s office said.

The announcement came after government ministers sought earlier this week to head off speculation that France might be the next major country to lose its top AAA status after the United States lost the coveted credit rating last week.

Budget Minister Valerie Pecresse said France would “not deviate one iota” from its promise to cut its deficit from 7.1 percent last year to 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product next year and 3.0 percent, the EU limit, by 2013.

Sarkozy’s return to Paris came as the debt crisis eased somewhat after the European Central Bank began buying Spanish and Italian bonds to lower their borrowing costs but investor jitters continue on fears the US and eurozone problems will spark a new recession.

The eurozone crisis is fuelled by fears that Spain or Italy might default on their debt and possibly spark a break-up of the currency shared by 17 countries.

EU leaders are trying to implement a July agreement aimed at beefing up the euro’s defences. But many of the measures need national parliamentary approval and that process could drag on to the end of the year in some cases.

Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency that downgraded US sovereign debt last week, said this week that it had no plans to take similar action against France because Paris had a clear policy to cut its deficit.

But French debt has faced pressure on the financial markets as the cost of credit default swaps, which are insurance policies against a default, hit record highs this week suggesting that investors were beginning to look at France more closely.

The International Monetary Fund said last month that France would probably need extra action to cut its public deficit in 2012 and 2013 as falling growth threatened to complicate economic recovery.

It said that without further efforts France was set for a public deficit of 3.8 percent in 2013, above both the EU limit and the government’s forecast.

The French central bank this week forecast that France would grow by only 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

The debt crisis has turned public deficits into a major issue in the run-up to next year’s presidential election in France, which has not produced a balanced budget in three decades.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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