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DAX tanks amid global economic fears

Germany’s DAX stock index on Monday dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year on investors' fears about the downgrading of the US credit rating and the eurozone debt crisis.

DAX tanks amid global economic fears
Photo: DPA

The index of Germany’s 30 leading blue-chip companies closed at 5,923.27 points, down more than 5 percent. The last time the DAX was that low was September 2010.

Monday’s heavy losses at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and other important European bourses came after US markets weakened in early trade. The broad sell-off started last week amid worries the world’s leading industrial nations could be heading into another period of sustained economic crisis.

Across the Atlantic, financial market observers were closely watching Wall Street after rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ credit rating from the top-notch AAA credit rating to AA+. The Dow Jones Industrials index was down 3 percent in morning trade.

Earlier on Monday, the markets seemed to be somewhat calmed, at least temporarily, by statements from the G-7 and G-20 groups of countries, which said they were prepared to ensure stability of the global financial system. They added that European countries were putting austerity measures in place in order to ensure sustainable budgets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy also said on Sunday that they would do everything possible in order to ensure equilibrium and stability in Europe.

But that has not removed deep worry among investors that some European Union countries, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, continue to suffer dangerously high debt loads that drag down the entire eurozone.

The Local/DAPD/DPA/mdm

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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