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FRANC

Swiss central bank should curb franc’s rise: Swatch chief

The head of watchmaker Swatch on Sunday urged Switzerland's central bank to take measures to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc, now at record heights against the euro and dollar.

“We must defend ourselves,” Swatch’s Director General Nick Hayek told the Sonntagszeitung newspaper in an interview published Sunday.

The National Bank of Switzerland (BNS) “must set an objective rate for the franc, for example a 1.35 (euro, $2.00) and defend it. This would at least be a clear signal” to the markets,” Hayek added.

He rejected claims that franc’s current record-high standing against the euro and dollar are due to the strength of the Swiss economy, which has attracted investors looking for a “safe haven” amid an intensifying eurozone debt crisis.

Rather, he said, the high rates are “a consequence of speculation.”

While Swatch on Thursday announced a net 24.5 percent rise in profits, Hayek said that trend would not last if the franc continued to soar.

“If the franc remains at these high levels high against the dollar and the euro, it will not be easy to maintain our profitability at current levels,” Hayek said.

The continued rise of the franc “will not only have very, very heavy consequences for us, but for all Swiss businesses and for tourism,” he said.

The franc hit record highs this weekend, brought on by the debt crises in Europe and the US, where lawmakers are working through the weekend to forge a compromise on raising the country’s borrowing limit.

On Friday evening, Swiss currency was trading at 1.1313 francs per euro, and 0.7852 against the dollar.

The BNS central bank had until 2010 intervened in exchange markets to limit the rise of the franc, but has since aborted that strategy after suffering major losses.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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