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EUROPE

Merkel calls for European credit rating agency

German chancellor Angela Merkel called Sunday for the creation of a European credit rating agency, on the back of recent discontent over the downgrading of some EU economies.

Merkel calls for European credit rating agency
Photo: DPA

“It is important in the medium term that Europe also has a ratings agency,”

she said in an interview with public broadcaster ARD.

“The Chinese now have a ratings agency,” the chancellor said – adding the new body should be created by the “European economy” and not by states.

There had not, until now, been much interest in creating such an agency, but there was a void, Merkel continued.

“I would really welcome it (if) the European economy manages to create a ratings agency,” she added.

The European Commission has in recent days roundly criticised the world’s three leading credit ratings agencies, questioning the timing of their debt downgrades, which influence prices and interest rates in the sovereign bond market.

Ratings agency Fitch severely downgraded Greece’s credit status this week, as the eurozone struggled to contain a debt crisis contagion. Last week another agency, Moody’s Investors Service, downgraded the debts of Ireland and Portugal to junk status.

EU leaders object that Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch are an “oligopoly” issuing self-fulfilling prophecies of doom, greatly aggravating the eurozone debt crisis.

The EU’s Internal Markets Commissioner has suggested a partial gag to

prevent them from grading debt issued by EU economies being rescued with

official funds.

There is also an undertone of critical comment that they are based in the United States.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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