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EUROPE

Germany rejects need for eurozone crisis summit

Germany on Wednesday played down the need for a crisis summit of eurozone leaders in response to eurozone debt debt contagion, saying finance ministers were already working on a rescue plan.

Germany rejects need for eurozone crisis summit

“There are no concrete plans for such a special summit,” government spokeswoman Sabine Heimbach told a regular news conference.

Calling an emergency meeting had been pushed by France and EU President Herman Van Rompuy.

“The important thing, and that is also the view of the chancellor, is that the work of the finance ministers on the Greek rescue package continue at full speed,” she said.

In Brussels, diplomats had suggested that “a meeting of eurozone leaders is under consideration,” while Van Rompuy said in Madrid that a summit “has not been excluded.”

“No decision has been taken”, Heimbach said, while acknowledging that it would be up to Van Rompuy to summon such a meeting.

German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus said for his part that the euro working group was hammering out a second rescue package for Greece, but noted

that Athens did not need to receive its next tranche of aid before mid-September and that there was no need for to “rush” decisions.

He also suggested Berlin would henceforth prove more flexible on how Greece might use financial help, saying it could, for example, use funds from the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to buy back its bonds.

“It is already now theoretically possible for a state to receive financial aid and then to use some of this to buy back its debt,” he said.

European Investment Bank (EIB) chairman Philippe Maystadt had said on Tuesday that the eurozone planned to relieve Greece’s debt mountain by buying back Greek bonds at going rates on the secondary market.

Speaking on the Belgian RTL-TVI network, Maystadt, who took part in an EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels, said “measures must be taken to make Greece’s debt sustainable.”

“There is a proposal which is backed by the European Central Bank (ECB), by the European Commission, and which we are going to discuss, which would consist in enabling the European Financial Stability Fund to buy back Greek bonds at market rates,” he said.

Eurozone finance ministers on Monday agreed to beef up the size and scope of the EFSF, a rescue fund set up in the aftermath of last year’s €110-billion Greek bailout, which has a current lending capacity of €440 billion ($620 billion).

Kotthaus also said he expected private capital to participate in the second rescue package for Greece, a call long made by Germany.

He also insisted that Germany would not force the ECB into any decision on Greece, but would act “alongside” the ECB which remained “a central anchor” of the eurozone.

Germany and the ECB had previously strongly differed on whether to allow Greece to restructure its debt, with the central bank arguing that this would torpedo investor confidence not only in Greece, but in other debt-wracked eurozone countries.

Meanwhile Jens Weidmann, the new head of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, warned that the current political cacophony over the debt crisis was weighing deeply on the eurozone.

“The cacophony over the past few weeks – and not only on the question of private capital participation – hasn’t helped to restore confidence in the ability of politicians to solve the problem,” he told the latest edition of Die Zeit weekly newspaper.

“To lift such uncertainty, eurozone countries must now, urgently, show they are capable of acting,” Weidmann said.

“In the current environment, linking new aid to private sector participation (in a rescue package) presents greater risks than chances of seeing every state agree,” he added.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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