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EUROPE

Schäuble warns Greece to reform for bailout

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble stepped up pressure on Greece on Monday, insisting the debt-laden country won’t get its next €12 billion bailout instalment without decisive economic reform.

Schäuble warns Greece to reform for bailout
Photo: DPA

His remarks followed a Sunday meeting of the 17 eurozone finance ministers, who agreed to hold off releasing the next €12 billion tranche of the bailout package until July. They are demanding the troubled Mediterranean nation pass austerity measures through its parliament including the privatization of public assets.

“First, Greece must fulfil the conditions. Then we can decide on a new programme so that the payout of the next instalment is possible,” Schäuble told broadcaster Deutschlandfunk.

If the country wouldn’t or couldn’t carry out the reforms, “this path cannot be taken,” he said.

The clear warning increases the pressure on Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who is trying to drum up support for his austerity measures to keep the bailout money flowing from the European Union and International Monetary Fund despite being besieged by public protests and dissent in his own party.

Schäuble also called on private creditors such as banks and insurance companies to voluntarily accept their share of the burden of a second Greek bailout package that is being negotiated. It was not in their interests for Greece to fall apart, he said.

The finance ministers in Brussels backed a plan for private investors to voluntarily bear some of the cost of the next Greek debt bailout. With the current bailout package no longer expected to be sufficient to keep Greece afloat, a second package, likely to total about €110 billion, the same as the first, is now being negotiated.

Under pressure from France, Germany watered down its original demand that private investors as well as taxpayers bear some of the brunt. The ministers in Brussels supported this compromise, stressing that private participation must be voluntary to avoid any perception that Greece is defaulting on its debt – which could destroy its international credit status.

“We have agreed that there should be a private-creditor participation, which should really be voluntary because we want to avoid any credit default or credit event,” Euro Group president Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters Sunday night, according to business news wire Bloomberg.

“But it also has to be clear that Greece has to bring about a situation where all the expected commitments are taken charge of. We depend very much that all legal processes are approved before the end of this month. Beginning of July we will have to continue to discuss the private creditor participation, which will be voluntary and we will have to check whether Greece has fulfilled all its obligations.

“Voluntary participation has to be voluntary which means that no pressure whatsoever can be exercised on the private sector.”

Germany had wanted a forced participation, which effectively would have amounted to a controlled default by Greece. On Friday, Chancellor Angela Merkel backed down and announced jointly with French President Nicolas Sarkozy support for a voluntary contribution.

The question now is whether enough banks and other large investors can be persuaded to voluntarily accept a so-called “rollover” of the Greek bonds they own, which would typically involve an extension on the term of the bonds or a pledge to buy new, repackaged bonds.

Juncker said another meeting would be held in early July to discuss details of the plan, he said. He also said it was impossible at the moment to predict how great a voluntary contribution would be.

“With a voluntary contribution by private creditors, one can’t predict in advance the size of this participation. This has to be discussed also with the private creditors.”

Papandreou faces a confidence vote in the Greek parliament on Tuesday night over his new cabinet, which he appointed to handle the current crisis. Juncker said the finance ministers in Brussels “reminded the Greek government forcefully that by the end of this month they have to work so that we are all convinced that all the commitments they made are fulfilled.”

The Local/djw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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