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ECONOMY

Business confidence takes another dip

Business confidence in Germany suffered a second monthly fall in a row, the closely watched Ifo indicator showed on Thursday, but the setback was roughly in line with

Business confidence takes another dip
Photo: DPA

analysts’ expectations.

The Ifo index of business sentiment fell to 110.4 in April from 111.1 in March.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had on average forecast a drop to 110.5 points.

“Despite considerable risks at the international level, the situation of the firms in Germany remains excellent,” said the institute’s president, Hans-Werner Sinn.

The euro rose on the news as investors had feared a sharper drop. Although companies were more pessimistic about their future prospects amid higher oil prices and crises in Japan and the eurozone, an index measuring their sentiment about their current situation also rose.

Carsten Brzeski, an economist from ING bank in Belgium, said the markets should shrug off the April decline.

“Do not forget: even after today’s drop, the Ifo remains close to record highs and bodes well for a continuation of strong German growth,” he said.

“For the time being, fortunately, the German economy will continue to be (almost) everybody’s darling,” he added.

Before March’s small dip, the headline Ifo index had posted nine straight monthly gains as confidence flew sky high in Germany amid strong economic growth and relatively low unemployment.

After suffering the worst recession for more than six decades in 2009, Germany has stormed back to economic health, registering its strongest growth last year since the country reunified in 1990.

Berlin last week upgraded its forecasts for growth this year, with the economy poised to expand by 2.6 percent. In 2012 the government expects slower, but still healthy, growth of 1.8 percent.

As the German economy has roared ahead, unemployment has fallen, boosting domestic demand in a country that has historically relied heavily on exports for its success.

There have nevertheless been some clouds on the horizon, with Germany’s other major sentiment index, the ZEW indicator of confidence among financial market players, also falling recently.

Earlier in April this index fell by more than analysts had expected as Japan, unrest in the Middle East and spiking oil prices took their toll on sentiment.

Rising inflation and interest rates also threaten to take a toll on the German economic recovery, observers say.

This month the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since mid-2008 in a bid to contain inflation although ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said it was not the start of a series of hikes.

“Quite a lot suggests the Ifo index will continue to fall in the coming months,” said a more downbeat analyst, Ralph Solveen from Commerzbank.

The Ifo index is based on a survey of around 7,000 firms in Europe’s top economy.

AFP/rm

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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