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ECONOMY

Investor confidence hit by Japanese crisis

German investor confidence has been hit by an expected interest rate hike and Japan's natural disaster and nuclear crisis, the closely followed ZEW survey indicated on Tuesday.

Investor confidence hit by Japanese crisis
Photo: DPA

The monthly ZEW poll of Germany’s financial sector showed a fall to an indexed 14.1 points in March from 15.7 points in February, a statement said.

Around 40 percent of the results in Europe’s biggest economy were received as or after the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis occurred, but all the opinions were collected before the full extent of the crisis had emerged.

“The German economy is in a robust shape. Nevertheless, the tragic events in Japan could slow down the dynamics of German economic growth at least in the short run,” the statement quoted ZEW president Wolfgang Franz as saying.

Overall however, “the indicator shows that financial market experts continue to expect a positive economic development during the forthcoming six months,” it added.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the index to remain unchanged.

ZEW said that “the current survey period covered two major events,” a hint by the European Central Bank that it would raise its main interest rate next month, and the Japanese catastrophe which has slammed global stock markets.

The overall indicator, which measures financial market expectations, is well below its historical average of 26.7 points.

Citi analysts said in a research note however that “we do not expect the earthquake to overwhelm world economic recovery or investors’ risk appetite.”

A measure of how German investors view the situation at present edged higher meanwhile, gaining 0.2 points to 85.4 points, which was nonetheless lower than an analyst forecast for a rise to 86 points from from 85.2 in February.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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