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ECONOMY

New car sales up 17 percent

New car sales in Germany gained an annualised 17 percent in January to 211,100 vehicles, the VDA auto federation said on Wednesday, with diesel-powered autos posting particularly strong gains.

New car sales up 17 percent
Photo: DPA

German exports grew by 10 percent to 312,800 vehicles while production in general was also 10 percent stronger at 416,100 units, a VDA statement said.

The sector’s order backlog jumped by 27 percent to 435,300 automobiles, the highest level for a month of January since 2001, it added.

German brands profited in particular from the increase in domestic sales, and a breakdown of the data showed sales of diesel-powered German cars leapt by 40 percent to represent more than half of all the new German cars sold.

A global economic rebound has boosted demand for German autos in many emerging markets, especially China.

In 2009, the German market contracted by about one-quarter, following the expiration of subsidies for drivers that turned in old cars to buy new ones.

This year, VDA expects 3.1 million autos to be sold in Germany, which would mark a gain of about six percent and exceed the level recorded in 2008.

On Tuesday, French automakers reported an increase of 8.2 percent in January sales, while the Italian market saw a decline of 20.7 percent and Spain said its car sales had slumped by 23.5 percent.

VDA said that a key factor helping German autos was their falling levels of carbon dioxide emissions.

New German cars registered in the country emitted three percent less CO2 than a year earlier, compared with 0.6 percent less for imported vehicles, VDA said.

That contrasted with a widespread perception that German brands are often more powerful and therefore pollute more, it added.

In the past four years, German manufacturers have reduced CO2 emissions in cars sold domestically by 13 percent.

The European transport association T&E nonetheless ranks Germany 17th out of the European Union’s 27 members in terms of the overall level of auto emissions.

VDA president Matthias Wissmann stressed on Wednesday that Germany would meet an EU emissions limit of 120 grammes of CO2 per kilometre by 2015.

The average level at present is 152 grammes/kilometre.

AFP/ka

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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